| The process of social and economic development are accelerating in China, infrastructure has made great achievements, and provided a powerful impetus for the social and economic development. Under the background of building a well-off society and accelerating the modernization process, how to improve the modernization level of road traffic, at the same time to improve its function and meet the growing traffic demand especially diverse and multi-level one, is the primary problem of road traffic development. Also, with the continuous development of the integrated transport system, how the road traffic develop its comparative advantage, and achieve coordinated development with other modes of transportation in the constraints of the resources and environment, how to allocate the transport resources scientifically and rationally to keep coordinated development with social, economic, environment is also a great challenge of road traffic development during the modernization process. Study the dynamic evaluation of the regional road modernization issue can help us understand the characteristics of the regional road modernization correctly. In this paper, the factors of regional road modernization are extracted, and scientific evaluation is made through scientific and reasonable evaluation system and evaluation methods. This work helps us accurately grasp the direction of the regional road modernization development, so that it can provide quality and efficient service for the regional socio-economic development.A relatively comprehensive analysis about the construction and evaluation of road modernization in domestic and abroad has been made in this paper. The existing evaluation system can not reflect the level of road modernization development comprehensively and objectively, furthermore most evaluation methods are based on static, which are incompatible with the dynamic characteristic of modernization. By studying the modernization theory, the application of system theory in the study of regional road modernization and the evaluation theory, the relationship between regional road modernization and socio-economic has been analyzed using the system engineering theory and ideology. Then make an attempt to put forward an evaluation system composed of four subsystems of infrastructure modernization, operation and management modernization, developing ways scientization and transportation modernization. The evaluation system can not only reflect the characteristics of its own development of road traffic, but also reflect the adaptability between itself and socio-economic development, so it can guide the construction of road modernization much better.The concept of dynamic weight is introduced in this paper in order to fully reflect the dynamic nature of regional road modernization. By comparing the max dependent degree of the index, a dynamic matrix is constructed, so that the dynamic weight can be determined in the use of AHP, in this way, the weight and value of index are linked, and the uncertainty caused by the subjective factors can be eliminated. The state analysis is taken as the breakthrough point in order to combine the matter-element extension model with the Markov model. Then take the evaluation results of Matter-element extension model as the basis of Markov model prediction so that the state probability transition matrix can be constructed. In this way, dynamic evaluation of the current situation of the regional road modernization and the prediction of future trends can be finished, at the same time the whole process of dynamic evaluation are truly realized. Finally take Tianjin as case to be analyzed, and point out the main problem of Tianjin road modernization. While conducting dynamic evaluation with Extension-Markov combined model, TOPSIS is also used to verify the evaluation results, so the results can provide some theoretical basis for Tianjin road modernization. |
PDF Full Text Request