Estimation Of Dependency Burden And Space-time Difference Analysis Of Rural Family In China

Economy in China has come into a period of rapid development since the 1990s. The structure of rural households also entered into the transitional period with the urbanization speeding up and rural population flow. This paper combed and analyzed family structure in rural areas based on the official data about rural households and rural population. The results showed that the miniaturization and nuclearization of rural households has become increasing significantly. Rural households are dominant by two-generation households from 1990 to 2000, but the proportion of one-generation households and three-generation households also increased.Combined with the status of the rural household structure, we proposed a detailed estimation method from two cross dimensions of family type and family scale. Through the estimation of dependency burden of China's rural households, we get conclusions as follows:population dependency burden of rural households basically follow the principle of "the larger intergenerational is, the burden is heavier; the smaller scale is, the burden is lighter". The average household dependency burden in rural areas declined from 1990 to 2000, and this trend is correspond with the background that China is just in the period of "demographic dividend". Meantime, the change trend of one-generation's dependency burden is contrary to that of average household's dependency burden in rural of China, which indicated that elderly couple households and single elderly households increased significantly in rural area.To further analyze the spatial difference of dependency burden of rural households in China, we estimated dependency burden on rural households of provincial administration units by Matlab software based on the estimation of dependency burden of rural households in the whole country. Considering per capita income and expenditure in rural area of each province, we modified that value and got the estimated value and corrected value of population dependency burden, which were used to carry on the spatial statistical analysis by techniques of geographic information system (GIS) and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA).The spatial aggregation of average family household, two-generation households and three-generation households is weakened, while that of one-generation households and four-generation households is enhanced under the conditions of pure population and family structure, which showed the trend of population aging in rural China and were gathered in the eastern coastal and western regions in geographical location. Under the influence of income and expenditure levels, the spatial aggregation of population dependency burden of all sorts of households weaken in ten years, which indicated that population dependency burden of the same type of households towards equilibrium situation in different regions.