Study On Prediction Of Demand For Construction Land In County

The implementation of two general land use plannings has played a significant role, but encountered many problems in land use management. Estimated construction land hit protection target of cultivated land, scattered construction land layout contradicted a number of key projects land site, and resulted in many planning adjustments and the large gap between the actual demands and forecast. These had a large limit of great social and economic development.In a new land-use planning revision, one of the main tasks is conducting the deeper research of forecasting demand for construction land, and providing a basiss for land use planning. This paper, by using mathematical model, based on the theories and methods at domestic and abroad, studies construction land demand forecasts with a comprehensive analysis in this new plannings. It establishes Multiple Linear Regression Model, GM (1, 1) Model and Neural Network model. According to proper principles, it, by using method of correlation analysis, selects the important factors of the affecting construction land, and builds a regression model with multiple regression analysis to predict the demand for construction land and optimise the model,in order to make it scientific and more accurates.Because GM (1,1) model dose not number much samples and can play down the influence of the uncertain effects,it constructs the model to predict the demand for construction land and carries out residual amendments to improve the accuracy degrees. Neural network model can improve the training speed and accuracy effectively, and make the prediction error minimum, better applicability and effectiveness.In this paper, it takes for Yichuan County in Luoyang City an example, based on the revision of the practice, utilizing socio-economic statistics and data on construction land from 1997 to 2005 , establishes Regression Model, Gray System Model and Neura Network Model , and carries out combination forecasting to predict the demand for construction land in the future in Yichuan County. Its forecasting results: 13246.33hm2 in 2010, 14190.373hm2 in2015, 15074.071hm2 in 2020. the total number of new construction land is 2436.019hm2 in the period from 2006 to 2020.which generally reflects construction land demand trend of the socio-economic development in the future in Yichuan County. So the predicted results can provide reference for construction land demand in a new round of land-use planning revision.