Research On Prediction Of The Total Scale Of Construction Land Based On C-D Production Function

Along with the rising level of urbanization, as a fundamental element for urban economic and social development, land requirement is increasing, and the land area for construction keep growing because of the further deepening of urbanization process. Survival and development issues require that we must control the total amount of construction land. Predicting land demand for construction, is a core to work out the general plan of land utilization, and is also the basis for land utilization and management. So according to the requirement of population growth and strategy of socio-economic development, proceed from the reality, making more scientific and accurate demand forecast is the key to rationally develop land demand plan.The paper focuses on the relationship between modern economic growth theory and land demand prediction, which mainly based on CD production function model, and analyzes the using status of construction land in YuLin. Considering that the influencing factor such as population,economic development etc, the paper shows three factor which have significant correlation influence on the construction land demand through analyzing the relationship between intra-area construction land demand and economic development. The paper takes the existing social economy statistical data and construction land data as foundation in YuLin, and using trend forecasts and other prediction technique works out the numerical value of GDP,investment in the fixed assets,and total population in YuLin. On this basis, the paper uses three prediction techniques (CD production function model,Multiple linear function prediction model,Category Prediction) to predict the demand of construction land in 2010 and 2020 in YuLin. At last, according to contrastive analysis, the paper finally obtains a more scientific and rational construction land demand.