Research On Supplier Selection And Optimal Supplier Number Based On The Risk Prevention

In accordance with economic development, a chain network which integrates material flow, information flow and capital flow, consisting of suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and users emerges between lots of enterprises. However, Supplier is at very special status as the sources of the supply chain and is the first step of establishing such a supply chain for the enterprises. Whether successful or not of choosing supplier is very important for the survival and development of the enterprises. Therefore, the most important thing is to choose proper suppliers and to determine the optimal number of suppliers for the enterprises in the supply chain. However, there is great deal of risk inside and outside the chain and from the suppliers in the process of choosing suppliers. Therefore, it is of great significance for efficient operation of the enterprise and efficiency promotion of the whole supply chain to identify and assess the risk in the choosing process effectively and to choose suppliers correctly.Based on elaborating the related theories on supply chain risk and supplier selection, first, this paper discusses the identification of the risky factors in supplier selection in consideration of supply chain from the perspective of supply risk, and reveals three kinds of risk in supplier selection.Those are external environmental risk, relations risk and ability risk. Moreover, on the foundation of studying the related key factors which bring about risks, the paper has constructed, by the method of combining qualitative indices and quantitative indices, a risk assessment index system of supplier selection, and furthermore, by using AHP to determine the weights of risk assessment indices, it has built the model of supplier risk assessment based on risk. Then, by introducing the cost of risk (the loss of the manufacturer because of supply risk of the supplier) into the total cost of purchase, thus it is divided into the cost of price, the cost of transaction and the cost of risk cost, and on the basis of analyzing the relationships between each section and the number of suppliers, based on the minimum principle of the total cost of purchase, the paper has given a method of calculating the optimal number of suppliers under supply risk. Finally, the paper has illustrated that the risk assessment indices, the assessment model and the decision-making method of the number of suppliers are feasible and practical by analyzing a case. Therefore, this paper has given a specific reference process for the manufacturers in the process of choosing supplier for the purpose of guarding against supply risk.Supply selection essentially consists of two aspects:to choose who and to choose the number of suppliers. This paper has studied the supplier selection from the perspective of supply risk. To some extent, the achievement of the paper is of guiding significance for enterprises to choose suppliers. The research of this paper can help enterprises investigate the risk indices in choosing suppliers comprehensively and systematically, pick suppliers properly and prevent risks effectively, so as to promote efficiency of the whole supply chain.