Study On The Evaluation And Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources Of Qitai Based On SD

Water shortage is a serious problem in QiTai,The study of water resource in QiTai plays an important role in the development of socio-economy and important of people's standard of living. The contents and results analyzed in this paper conclude the following three parts:(1)Based on the analysis of existing water resource, exploitation and use efficiency of surface water in QiTai is 70%,overexploitation of underground water has reached 139% in plain. Water resource has become more and more weak recently(.2)The industrial production values,urban population and farmland proportion were chosen as evaluation index of water resource, the system dynamics(SD) model of water resource of QiTai was developed using SD method ,the model parameters were estimated by analyzing and calculation ,these data from water resource and social economic systems of QiTai,The model was stabile and reliable according to testing.(3)According QiTai's character :there are four schemes: the trend option,the rapid economy growth option,the ecology protection option and the ecology-economy balanced development option . The result of simulation indicates that: the forth option is the best project to allocate the water resource of QiTai in each scenario. The water demand of the first and second option in 2010 will reach 5.11 billion stere,6.7 billion stere and water system of supply can only reach 4.91 billon stere and 4.48 billion stere,It is predicated that water system between supply and demand can not get balance. Although surplus water is reached 9023 stere and 8652 stere in 2010 and 2020,the balance between demand and supply can well solved, but the economic development can not satisfact the social's need .The water-ecology-economy option not only improve the environment but also increase the economic development .The industrial production values reach 34 billon. So the water-ecology-economy option can bring forward policy suggestion for the allocation of water resource .So the decision-maker can gain scientific and dependable decision.