Multi-Objective Risk Analysis Of Optimal Allocation Of Water Resource

Water is the most basic resources for human development.With the development of economy,it is very important to choose the most effective water resource allocation scheme in the limited water resources.Because water resource allocation scheme is effected by many kinds of uncertain factors,it is very helpful for choosing water resource allocation scheme,formulating risk management scheme and improving benefits of water resource allocation to determine the influence of these factors.Based on the connotation of risk of water resource allocation,the key risks wrer identified by FMEA and a multi objective risk analysis model was established to achieve the maximum benefits of economic,social and ecological.Taking the irrigation area of Canal Village in Puyang as an example,risk analysis was made by using Monte-Carlo simulation method and sensitivity factors of every benefits were identified by sensitivity analysis.The specific research contents as follows:(1)Based on researches in the risk analysis of water resources allocationat home and abroad,the key risks of optimal allocation of water resources and their characteristics are summarized systematically and comprehensively.(2)According to the characteristics of the risk of water resources optimized allocation,combined with the characteristics of various risk factors and based on the FEMA list,the probability distribution of every risk factor is selectedand the risk factors are simulated by the Monte-Carlo method in Crystal Ball software.(3)After identifying the risk factors of optimal allocation of water resources,the risk analysis model of optimal allocation of water resources is established which isbased on the objective of economic benefit,social benefit and ecological benefit.Through the case study,combined with the existing water resources allocation schemes,risk rates of different inflowfrequency were worked out by Crystal Ball softwareandthey demonstrate that the model is effective and feasible.(4)Combined with the results of risk analysis,risk assessment of water resources allocation schemes is made by sensitivity analysis and sensitivity factors of economic benefit,social benefit and ecological benefit are identified.It provides a theoretical basis for scheme selection.The result section showed that the theory is proper and the method is rational and feasible.It can provide academic and technical support to to choose the most effective water resource allocation scheme.