Telecom Restructuring Policy Evaluation Based On System Dynamics Theory

In 2008, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and Ministry of Finance jointly issued a document, declaring China's third telecom operator corporate restructuring officially begun. The aim of the telecommunications restructuring is to integrate the existing five major telecom operators into three main carriers (not including China Satellite Communications Co.,Ltd.).In 2009, the telecom operator corporate restructuring has been initially completed. The effectiveness of the policy will appeared gradually in a following long period. In order to better understand the policy implementation results, be able to have a good control of the policy trend and provide reference for follow-up policy formulation and implementation, the related government administration needed to conduct a comprehensive and systematic prediction and evaluation on policy implementation status. E.g. studied on whether the policy target was to be achieved, and what negative effects would occur, and what the overall effect of future policy would be, and what indicators could be regarded as a part of policy reference model. While, the current domestic expertise in this area research was still relatively lacking.This main content of this article was telecommunications restructuring policy evaluation, which was classified as a public policy research. The author referred to the theory of public policy as the research framework and a theoretical basis, and summed up the relevant experiences of domestic and overseas scholars, then, established a policy evaluation index system. Given the previous research result, the author created a model by using system dynamics modeling approach, and conducted simulation and emulation of mobile telecommunications industry regulatory environment. Through the two-stage model, the author predicted and compared the results of corporate restructuring and future telecommunication industry development.According to the results of this simulation, this author conducted a comprehensive evaluation on the telecommunications restructuring policy, based on the policy evaluation indicators framework. Finally, the author inputted related data into the model, adjusted the data, observed and analyzed the changes in model along with data adjusting, proposed management suggestion on follow-up policy improvement.