Study On Land Resources Synthetic Carrying Capacity In Changsha City

Resources carrying capacity regards as the most effective indicators for evaluating the future sustainable development of a society.Estimating the land carrying capacity of a country or a region becomes an objective requirement for promoting the coordinated development of population,resources,economy and environment,and achieving the sustainable development strategy.Changsha as the capital of Hunan province,the center city in central China, accurate estimating its land carrying capacity has great research value ,specially for the course of Changzhutan Urban Agglomeration construction.This paper summarizes the study method of land carrying capacity at home and abroad, adopts the relative carrying capacity of resources method, analysis the status of relative land resource synthetic carrying capacity in Changsha city in 2007 ,compared with China and the six cities of central China in the same year,and find out that the contribution rate of economy carrying capacity to the synthetic carrying capacity is a bit higher than land production carrying capacity.And based on the principles and methodology of System Dynamics, land resource synthetic carrying capacity system dynamics model of Changsha City was established according to the analysis of land resource synthetic carrying capacity system and establishment of flow charts and equations in the present work. By repeated verifications, the model was proved to be reliable. Taking 2008 as the base year, the changes of land resource synthetic carrying capacity from 2009 to 2020 in Changsha city was simulated, according to the principles of sustainable development,choose the best plan,and besides,provide some feasible suggestions for improving the land resource synthetic carrying capacity in Changsha. which may provide a scientific basis for plan of land utilization, population and other relative plans...