Research On Early-warning Of Sustainable Cultivated Land Use In Shan Xi Province

Cultivated land is a very important resource , being non-renewable resource should be used in a sustainable way. The sustainable utilization of cultivated land related to food security, social stability and ecological security. Whether the cultivated land resources are sustainable influences the sustainable development of Shan xi province.Based on the sustainable development of regional cultivated land resources , this paper takes Shan xi province as the research subject. The status of cultivated land resource is qualitatively appraised form several aspects, such as: agricultural climate, distribution potential resource and utilization current situation .etc.,and we found that agricultural chemicals in excess, disaster area is larger, a shortage of arable land resources are problems in cultivated land use, Based on the knowledge of economics , we analysis the reason why there are so many problems in the cultivated land utilization. Firstly , this article analysis the driving force of cultivated land by the grey theory based on the statistic and census data in Shan xi province,the main factors are soil erosion, the level of the urbanization and construction investment, at the same time, we analyze the factors which make the quality of the cultivated land worse. Then we establish some indexes of warning presage and warning circumstance about the quantity and quality of cultivated land, and know that the cultivated land resources sustainable use are in dangerous, last 10 years,the warning circumstance is not serious. After that, we made a short term anticipation for the indexes of per capita arable land area, grain yield per unit area and the amount of chemical fertilizer by GM(1,1) model and made warning degree forecast, the result is that in next few years the warning circumstance will be more serious ,and the warning degree will be heavy in 2015, which indicates an unoptimistic prospect for the cultivated land sustainable utilization. At last we find several policy implication and give some suggestions , which can provide a reference for the cultivated land sustainable utilization in Shan xi province.