The Warning Study Of Cultivated Land Resource Security In Hubei Province

Hubei province, as the core in central region,undertake the responsibility of "central rise" main force, while the cultivated land resource security is the base of food security and the social and economic security, therefore the research on the early warning of cultivated land resource security in hubei province has practical significance.Based on the present situation of cultivated land resources in hubei province, the paper will build index system from three aspects——"quantity, quality, ecology ".Calculate and predict the comprehensive value of cultivated land resource security of hubei province and the 17 regional scopings from 2011 to 2016. Establish the threshold value and forecast the alert, according to the regional characteristics.Besides, put forward countermeasures of the warning situation, according to the p factor to make good use of the cultivated land resource. Through the analysis, the main conclusions include:(1) Figure out the corresponding security value of each year of the cultivated land resources, according to the 1995-2010 in hubei province and its scope of 17 regional related data. There are different problems in hubei province cultivated land resource security in different aspects based on further analysis.The cultivated land quantity and overall volatility is on the decline——0.5631 in 2010; Cultivated land quality and safety while slowly began to rebound from 2002, but its secure value was 0.3948 in 2010, only reaching to 57% compared to 1995; Security situation of the cultivated land ecological environment is good totally, but it presented the downward trend since 2002, it dropped to 0.4928 in 2010;The security value of Cultivated land resource in hubei province was 0.4672 in 2010,dropping by 28.91% compared with 1995.(2) Establish the threshold according to the security value of cultivated land resources ever gotten.Moreover,make the time prediction through the grey neural network model of cultivated land resources in hubei province.This paper forecasts the security value of cultivated land resources in hubei province is 0.4568 in 2016, compared to the determined threshold, we can make sure of its existing alert and the warning degree is mild. By the security value from calculation and forecasting of the cultivated land resource in the 17 regional scopings in hubei, the results show that the alert will be medium in the following areas——wuhan as the center and went in the area of huangshi, ezhou and xiantao, qianjiang in 2016.Other parts except the dragon frame all reach mild. It reflects that security alert of cultivated land resource in Hubei province has the problem of regional imbalance.(3) The problem of the decrease in the number of common cultivated land, the total decline of cultivated land quality and cultivated land ecological security still exist and will continue to affect the cultivated land resource security situation in hubei province. Controlling of reduce of cultivated land quantity and keeping the increase of cultivated land quality still need to pay attention to the importance of the problem in the future, in addition,the downward trend of ecological safe value should be concerned.(4) Put forward three countermeasures of cultivated land resource security alert according to the p factor of hubei province,...