The Research On Prediction Method Of Huishan Agricultural Products Logistics Park Demands Based On Grey Forecast GM (1.1)

With the development of economic globalization in recent years, especially after China joining WTO, domestic agricultural development is subjective to unprecedented challenge. To alleviate agricultural competitive pressure, our government has made great efforts in developing the logistics of the agricultural products in order to reduce agricultural production cost. "Three farming problems" is the social problem of our country that has been paid much attention in recent years. Developing modern agriculture is the feasible method of solving this problem. The logistics of agricultural products is an important part of modern agriculture.From the quantitative side, this paper has studied the market demand in the logistics of agricultural products from 2006 to 2013 in Shenyang Huishan Logistics Park of Agricultural Products, and provides some constructive suggestions on its planning and developing. During the process of the study, firstly, it analyses the necessity of building Shenyang Huishan Logistics Park According to the meaning and function of building the logistics park in cities now and the situation and trend of the development in the logistics of agricultural products at home and abroad, it shows that the problems in the development of our country's logistics of agricultural products and how to utilize the advanced experiences in developing the logistics of agricultural products abroad and the real practice in building the logistics Park It emphasizes the possibility, necessity and the advantages in building the logistics park of agricultural products in Shenyang Huishan High Technology Develop Zone, and the essential functions of agricultural development of three provinces in the northeast of China. Secondly, it gives introductions on basic theoretical knowledge in prediction method of logistics, on the unique advantages of the grey forecast method compared with the others, and the reason of choosing it in predicting the logistics of agricultural products and the mode and the test of GM. Finally, it gives predictions to the market demand for the logistics of agricultural products in Shenyang Huishan Logistics Park. Because of the immaturity of our logistics of agricultural products at present, the lack of statistical standard and the materials of the logistics of agricultural products, it is difficult to use the usual way to predict the market demand of the logistics of agricultural products. Therefore, during the process of predicting, an indirect way is utilized:first of all, a revised index is given to make adjustment about the quantity of agricultural products around the logistics Park. Then, the existing statistical quantity of agricultural products in the park is taken into consideration. Finally, this paper indirectly predicts the market demand for the logistics of agricultural products in the logistics Park. According to the analysis of the market demand for the logistics of agricultural products in the logistics center and the building mode of the logistics Park, the paper provides some suggestions on the development of Shenyang Huishan Logistics Park.