Research And Application On Large-scale Chemical Project Based On G-ANP Method

Generally, there are many devices in large-scale chemical projects, and one-time investment is huge. In the construction process, there are also many risks coming from technology, environment, organization, management and so on, which may have great influence on the large-scale chemical project's safety and economy. Currently, chemical industry in our country develops in high speed. Large-scale or even super-scale chemical projects are increasing day by day. So fully identification of potential risks in project, application of appropriate methods for the systematic evaluation of risks, development of the practical coping strategies for the risks, and implementation of effective risk control measures are becoming an issue which is urgent for academic community and project builders.Considering this problem, on the basis of studying large number of articles and analyzing the traits of large-scale chemical projects in this field, this thesis set up an evaluation index system of the risks in large-scale chemical project; and then provide an evaluation method of large-scale chemical project based on Gray Statistical Evaluation and Analytic Network Process (G-ANP), which finally is applied and verified in risk evaluation of one large-scale integrated chemical project. The main contents of this thesis are as follows:First, this thesis analyses the current situation of risk analysis in large-scale chemical project, contrasts several methods that commonly used in risk evaluation field, and then studying on the large chemical projects, its characteristics and problems existing in the risk evaluation, all of which provide theoretical support for the establishment of large-scale chemical projects'risk evaluation system.Then, this thesis set up a risk evaluation index system of large-scale project. First, it compares several common methods of risk identification, and identifies the risk factors by refining the initial state of the project by Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Then, according to the source of risks in large-scale chemical projects, the thesis gets a risk evaluation index system containing social environment, natural environment, technology, economy, management and organization as well as construction risks.And then, considering the problems of complex correlation in risk factors, little quantitative risk analysis, insufficient basic information, combining with the gray characteristics in the process of evaluation, this thesis provides the G-ANP method on the basis of analyzing the Analysis Network Process and gray system theory, and gives the risk evaluation model of large-scale chemical project, as well as the model's solving process in detail.Finally, based on the theoretical investigation above, the model is applied in evaluating risks in one large-scale integrated chemical project, and analyzes the evaluation results which provide important references for the project's making decision and management in the future. It also verified the feasibility and validity of G-ANP method.