The Research Of Risk Management For New Product Development Projects Of Microscope In L Group

Along with the obvious trend of economic globalization, MNC showskeen interest in new product development which is frequently triggered andcarried out. Because of the uncertainty during the research and developmentof new products, majority of new products projects will face complicated riskfactors. Under the effect of numerous unpredicted risk factors, it is verydifficult for the project managers to estimate the project lead time and budgetand make them under control which will lead to overtime or deficit even thefailure of whole project.Considering the previous paper studying, this thesis reviewed various riskqualitative analysis method and quantitative analysis method, and then itestablished the qualitative-quantitative synthesized risk management systembased on the philosophy of product life circle management aimed at newproduct development projects. Firstly, the thesis described work breakdownstructure and risk breakdown structure for qualitative analysis, through whichto draw the risk factor diagram then indentify the key risk factor of newproduct project. Secondly, the thesis explained GERT stochastic networkmodel applied graphical evaluation and review technique, analyzed thealgorithm of risk elements transfer theory in GERT model. Followed, the thesis illuminated the method of building GERT model of the new productproject and simplification algorithm, then simulating the model with Monte-Carlo method and Crystal Ball software to obtain the project risky object andprobability distribution.In case study part, the thesis demonstrated the risk management process ofnew product project of microscope in L group. In the beginning, the thesismade a WBS-RBS qualitative analysis of the project and proved project leadtime is the key risk factor in this project. Afterwards, the thesis built up thestochastic GERT model of the project, set up parameters to stimulate projecttime with Monte-Carlo method and Crystal ball software. In the end, thethesis drew the conclusion of project lead time and its distribution, also thesensitive activities which are essential to the project lead time.