| Corn is not only important food crops, fodder crops, but also an important economic crops and industrial raw materials. Corn deep-processing products can be widely used in more than 20 industries, such as food, beverage, pharmaceutical, bio-energy, paper, chemicals, tobacco, mining, oil drilling, as well as environmental protection. In recent years, driven by the persistently high oil prices as well as energy security and global climate change, all countries pay increasing concern to intensify their search for alternative energy sources and to enforce and encourage the increased use of renewable energy sources. From the development trend, it is entirely possible for corn ethanol instead of part of petroleum products and gradually to be reduced the cost to the following petroleum products. Based on such judgments, corn, significantly speeding up the transformation, governments have developed for this large and long-term development plan, consequent demand for corn continues to increase dramatically. Meanwhile, with the proportion of animal husbandry in agriculture, as well as the corn deep processing technology to improve, multi-functional, multi-purpose features will become increasingly apparent, and corn is a pivotal position in national economic development.China is a maize production and consumption power in the world, its production and consumption are all about 1/5 of the world's corn, while China is the second-largest corn exporter in the world. For a long time, as the increasing needs of meat, eggs, milk and other food, demand for feed corn will continue to increase. At the same time, the continuous expansion of corn deep processing and demand for bio-fuels will lead to growing demand for corn. China is a populous country, in the face of such strong demand for corn, corn development has been constrained by China's arable land, water resources, and ecological environment. In the trend of grain marketability and globalization, the relation between our country corn balance between supply and demand and the world grain market's is getting more and more close, The international corn market would has more and more tremendous influence to China's corn production, circulation and consumption. Analysis of these factors has an important significance to understand the domestic corn market, to stabilize domestic prices and long-term development strategy of China's agriculture.At present, domestic and foreign scholar focused on the short-term analysis of the corn supply and demand and which are mostly quantitative analysis, profits from the nature to our country corn industry's long-term development to be low, therefore, it is necessary to make the long-term analysis and the forecast to the international corn market quotation as soon as possible.In this paper, I used several primary factors which influence international corn market quotation: the economic cycle, the supply-demand relation and the cost and so on. Used the detailed data and the massive graphs has carried on the scientific system's analysis of the international corn market quotation, And use time series and multiple regression models to predict long-term trends of the international corn market, by qualitative and quantitative prediction methods. The analysis result showed that fluctuations in the international corn market conditions mid-frequency and a larger amplitude, will show a rising trend for a long time. In order to cope with this kind of fluctuation tendency of the international corn market, I put forward several proposals for our country corn industrial development in the paper: Vigorously develop the maize industry to ensure the supply of corn; To strengthen the establishment of maize reserve system, give full play to the role of reserves and throughput, To encourage corn producers and related businesses to use corn futures market hedging and to avoid price risk. |
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