Research On Financial Crisis Combination Early-Warning Model Of The Real Estate Listed Companies In China

With the reform of China's housing system,the development of the real estate industry in China is very rapid.The real estate market has a large demand and the industry chain is very long,healthy and Sustainable of this industry development plays an important role in our national economy.However,behind the rapid growth of the real estate market in China,there are also large risks and bubbles.The real estate industry itself has the characteristics of capital-intensive,long input-output cycle,and large financial leverage.Under the current economic situation and high inventory pressure.The crisis of the real estate industry finances has aroused widespread concern in the society,especially as the competition in China's real estate market has become more intense,the hidden financial risks are high.This requires real estate listed companies to be aware of the importance of early warning of financial crisis.Therefore,this article takes China's real estate listed company as the research object,and it is of great significance to construct a financial crisis combined early warning model applicable to it.Based on the summary of previous research results,this paper defines the related concepts of financial crisis clearly,and combs the relevant theories involved in early warning of financial crisis,which lays a theoretical foundation for the following model construction.And introduces the basic characteristics of the real estate listed companies in our country,and deeply analyzes the influencing factors of the financial crisis of the real estate listed companies in our country.On the basis of this,this article adopts the idea of combining financial and non-financial indexes to build a system that contains 30 indicators,The index system is made more reasonable by screening the index by significance test,and three single early-warning models of logistic regression model,fisher discriminant model and SVM model are respectively constructed on the basis of principal component analysis.Based on this,We use the principle of"minimum sum of squares of errors" to carry out the linear programming to solve the weight value of each model in the combination of early warning model,and finally build the early warning model of financial crisis for listed real estate companies in our country and test the model early warning effect,compares various models the pros and cons.Finally,put forward suggestions.