Analysis On China's Demand And Supply Of The Feed Grain On The Views Of The Food Security

"Food security" concept keeps developing and changing after the global food crisis was put forward in the early 70s,20th century, and now has developed into the "Food for sustainable security" concept hierarchy. Chinese scholars also elaborate on the concept of food security with the food security situation in our country. With comprehensive research results, I believe that we should note the following points in the understanding of food security:(1)The concept of food security is for each person to ensure everyone's food needs, whether it is in major grain-producing area or food sales areas. Therefore, it is not only a matter of food production problems, but also the flow of the grain market, and even in some cases, the flow problem may be more important.(2)The core of food security is to ensure national food production capacity, which is based on the sustainable and stable development of grain-growing industry. However, food security is not a rejection of international trades, international grain market is also an important source of food to realize the effective supply of domestic food.(3)The food security level is gradual, they should ensure that food quantity and quality safety are at the first place, and on this basis, pursue the realization of ecological safety level step by step, according to the actual situation.(4)From the view of the rigid characteristics of food needs, ensuring food security should focus on maintaining and improving the current level of consumption, to ensure the food supply levels are not reduced.Food is a necessity of people's lives, which highlights that the food economy is in an important position in the national economy. Also, as a result of national conditions of China's large population, the stage of historical development when industrialization and urbanization rapidly advance, as well as the history of the famine, it is of great importance and special significance to ensure food safety in our country. At present, the living consumption of urban and rural residents in China has entered an improvement-type phase and the consumption of animal products is increasing, which lead to the demand for feed grains continues to grow. The demand for feed grains has become the main issue of China's food needs. A large number of research literatures about the food needs has related to the analysis of feed grain, at the same time, there are specialist studies of feed grain. But together, these studies are still less than the following:(1) The units of livestock grain consumption coefficient, that is the conversion rate of feed grains is controversial. (2) The demand for meat products of urbanization on the impact of different studies have differences. (3) of specific varieties of grain used for feed grain demand analysis less. However, from maintaining national food security, production security point of view, the reality is what we want in key grain varieties of feed grain demand for research results.With the synthetically comparison with the relative study, I believe that we not only need to pay attention to the differences between the data in the study, but also need to take note to the variability of the conversion rate of feed grains in the analysis about the conversion rate of feed grains. The conversion rate varies with the change of keeping scale and the difference between the South and North.The urbanization affects the food consumption through the difference of food structure between the urban and village, which means that the consumption of animal food in urban area is far higher than the village area with the lower consumption of the grain food than the village area. It makes many studies believe that urbanization is one of the important factors which affecting the changes in food demand. So the average food consumption in the urban people is higher than the village people. The theoretical foundation claimed by the scholars who hold this view is the study about the social factors which affects the food needs by Huang Jikun, but I believe that there is some deviation in the understanding. At the same time, combining the conclusions of relevant studies to the contrary, I think, urban and rural residents in grain consumption differences do exist, but with the economic and social development, the difference between urban and rural residents in animal food consumption, is not generally considered a big, while there is a tendency to narrow.The composition of feed grain is a complex issue, and there is not much related research literature. I compared the analysis of several related studies, and use the proportion of 80% grain demand in the proportion of 80% of the feed demand to calculate the demand for corn.The feed grain demand forecasting methods in the existed literature can be divided into two kinds:one is using some quantitative Methods such as time series regression, model of consumer demand system and so on based the analysis about the situation of the feed food consumption to analysis and forecast; the other is based on the analysis and forecast about the animal food demand in the future. I think that the second method is more reasonable, and I use this method to predict China's feed grain demand in the next decade.From the perspective of food security, achieving the effective supply of feed grains needs to analyze not only domestic production but also the imports and exports. It needs to analyze not only the situation of the production of feed grains, but also the flow of feed grain.China's corn production has shown a steady increase in the overall growth trend, especially after 2000 the trend of steady growth is very evident, which was mainly concentrated Shandong, Jilin, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, etc. provinces in the North and autonomous regions, the maize production of these seven provinces and regions is close to 70% of the national output.In theory, many factors affecting food production, It can be divided basically into four categories:(1)The factors of production inputs,for example land, labor, fertilizer, machine, capital and so on.(2)Technical progress of agriculture.(3) The policy of country commissariat the organization of agricultural production and manage system.(4)Sundry nature calamities. But the alteration of these factors is different. Relatively, if the devotion of production factors and the policy of country commissariat is steady, it is easily to be measured. Besides, from the effect which be worked by four factors in agriculture production their importance is different. Many researches prove that the sowing area is the major factor which affects the commissariat production. The study find that on the affect factor of improve corn's production, improving sowing area have make important contribution since 2003.So the author think that the corn's sowing area should be concerned more. From the situation of every zone, Corn plantings are mainly concentrated in seven provinces and autonomous regions in the north. Seven provinces and autonomous regions of the corn acreage accounted for 65.28% of the national corn acreage. Therefore, to ensure that maize production should focus on the production of major grain-producing provinces and regions in the enthusiasm of farmers to maintain the existing acreage is not reduced.As a species of grain, corn production is facing serious food production the same situation, induction of arable land resources, water shortage situation in growing;(2) Lack of agricultural support and protection system;(3) Agricultural social service system is not sound. But also some studies that the existence of China's future grain production increase of cultivated land resources development and agricultural scientific and technological innovation and the transformation of the yield potential.From the international market, corn production, trade point of view, China is the world's second largest corn producer. In recent years, China's net exports of maize have shown momentum, exports are far greater than imports. Imports and exports from the region of view, the country's imports and exports of corn are more focused on the relative. In recent years, the United States, Brazil and other countries to vigorously develop biomass energy from corn, while U.S. corn exports in the international market, a large proportion of trade, which will have a larger impact on the formation of the international corn trade, the future of imports from the international market, The outlook is not optimistic about the corn.Corn generally presented domestic circulation of the "North-South transport grain" characteristics. The Northeast region is transferred out of the country's largest maize area, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta is an important region of maize transferred. Long-distance transport highlights the smooth flow of corn feed grains supply system in our country to protect the prominence. China's current circulation of maize the main problems are:(1) storage is small, purchasing and storage capacity is limited; (2) restructuring of state-owned grain enterprises are not in place; (3) capacity tight.Based on the analysis and conclusion mentioned above, I propose the policy recommendations below to enhance the future capabilities of China's feed grain supply.(1)Paying more attention to the demand for feed grains, and further strengthening the investigation and research about the demand for feed grains to find out the real situation and conclude more specific and accurate demand. Put the survey on the important role in the research about feed grain; further strengthen the investigation about the use and demand of feed grain. Analyze a large number of first-hand information to make true and accurate judgments.(2)Attaches great importance to agricultural resource protection, make great efforts to solve declining in arable land resources and water shortages(3)Gradually establish a system of agricultural support and protection. According to the actual situation, gradually establishing agricultural products price protection system, agricultural subsidies system, agricultural inputs system and agricultural eco-environment protection scheme compensation system. Based on respecting the dominant position of grain enterprises in the grain market, defining the way of government maintaining a stable food prices, and making clear the subsidy policy channels to build the grain price protection system which have government appropriate intervention and market-oriented operation of grain purchasing market. Further define the object of agricultural production subsidies. And according to the national food security strategies, setting up high-level standards of seed subsidies to the variety, such as rice, feed grain, which has tight supply and demand relationship, to establish the agricultural subsidy system which reflect production incentives to the varieties of grain, and have the dynamic adjustment mechanism. Getting rid of the irrational deprivation on the agriculture in the process of industrialization and urbanization, and building the agricultural inputs security system that include sloping to key areas and key aspects, taking into account of the regional interests, guiding social capital investment in agricultural on the support of financial funds. Considering the various regions of different economic levels and ecological environmental conditions, trying to establish the agricultural eco-environment compensation system that guiding by the economically developed areas and focusing on areas with a fragile ecological environment.(4)With the supporting of government funding, try to build and enrich the rural collective economy relying on farmer specialized cooperatives, and enable it to truly take on the main responsibility of rural infrastructure construction.(5)Based on clarifying the agricultural technology promotion public welfare services and commercial services, conformity restructuring agricultural technology promotion service system, at the same time, clear about the current agricultural technology promotion service station the ownership department, ensure the adequat project funding of agricultural technology promotion, stable and develope agricultural extension services workforce.(6)Strengthen the obligations and responsibilities local government of food sales areas in safeguarding national food security, and encourage co-ordination of food business, even mergers and acquisitions, among the enterprises in the produce and sales areas to coordinate marketing area's economic interests.(7)Accelerate the reform of state-owned grain enterprises, expand the enterprise autonomy, to enhance the vitality of enterprises and effectively elevate the dominant position of grain enterprises in the grain circulation.