An Empirical Study Of Tianjin Environmental Kuznets Curve

Tianjin is one of northern economically developed cities, its rapid economic development of the increasingly faced with the reality of pollution. It is of great significance and urgency for the Tianjin sustainable development to do research on the relationship between economic and environment's growth and to achieve the coordination of economic and environmental development. In examining the relationship between economy and the environment are usually used in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), this study is began to end of the 20th century and it's later in the domestic than in foreign developed countries, and domestic scholars studies related EKC curve is also not the same .Being the center of The Bohai Rim region, the economic center of the international port city and the economic center of the northern city in future, Tianjin is studied in environmental EKC curve, and its research articles is outdated, not comprehensive, not in-depth and systems. So the researches used EKC curves theory in-depth study of Tianjin economic growth and environmental changes have some theoretical and practical significance.In this paper, the application of environmental Kuznets curve theory paradigm, study the relationship between economic growth and environmental changes in the period of 198S-2006 , in the process of industrialization of Tianjin, collect 22 environmental and economic dates, the application of advanced mathematical software tools to simulate Tianjin Environmental Kuznets curve, using curve shape to try to find the reasons for the formation of the environment and future development trends.This paper studies the following findings:1. Although the Environmental Kuznets curve reveals the environmental quality from the more serious pollution to the stage of gradual improvement, due to the natural conditions of different regions, economic development model, the different systems, etc., Different regions should improve the quality of the environment is unique. Research found that the quality of the environment evolution path is "positive U + in versed U " in Tianjin, and this characteristics more complex than typical EKC curves.2. Each of the industrial waste was found, with economic development, the three pollutants have different trends. When invoked Lorenz curve analysis Tianjin Industrial "three wastes" uniformity of the value of pollution found that the environmental Lorenz coefficients were in the normal range.3. In our study time span, Tianjin result of the possible environmental factors curve more, through mathematical curve-fitting, as well as qualitative analysis that, at this stage, mainly due to economic changes in the industrial structure and input environmental protection funds in the process of industrialization.4. Based on "Tianjin 11th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development planning," and "the overall planning of Tianjin City 2005-2020" relevant economic indicator data. In the future of Tianjin development of environmental quality for simulation found that the decline in environmental Kuznets curve inflection point will occur in per capita GDP7000 dollars, corresponding to about the year 2010. Likely to fall into the level of pollution stage of the main reasons is that technological progress and economic structural change and the Government's investment in environmental protection efforts.