Based On The Ecological Footprint Of Input - Output Model Of Shandong Province Study On Sustainable Development

This essay introduces domestic and international research methods of Ecological Footprint, analysing their merits and demerits in detail. It puts an emphasis on the introduction of the Input-Output model, which is developed and used widely in recent years. Based on the model, it calculates the EF of Shandong province in 1997 to illustrate the environmental effects that human activity bring about to Shandong province.The result of the EF of Shandong in 1997 shows that the EF is 4.41×107 ha, nearly as 3 times as the total land area of Shangdong province, among which the energy footprint is 2.87×107ha and the EF per person is 0.501ha, which is less than the result of the traditional calculating method. The EF export is 5.39×106ha, and the EF import is 3.26×10ha. The import is more than the export.Calculating the EF of Shangdong province in 2002, and it shows that the final demand of the EF is 7.12×107ha, which is 4.5 times of the land areas of Shangdong province, the EF per person is 0.785ha, the import EF is 3.21×107ha, and the EF export is 2.37×107ha.Comparing to 1997, the final demand of the EF in 2002 increases 2.71×107ha, has increased by 61.5%. The import increases 2.67×106ha, has increased by 5 times, among which the EF of agricultural land and the industrial energy footprint both have a great leap. The export increases 2.04×106ha, has increased by 6 times. All of these statistics indicates that the economical development of Shangdong province is getting closer and closer with other regions of the country and even other countries of the world and the total volume of the trade keeps rising.In the process of analysing the main influencing factors causing the change of the final demand of the EF, ?CE is used to stand for the change of the EF caused by the change of the productivity of resource, and ?BE is used to represent the change of the EF caused by the change of production conditions, and ?DE is used to represent the change of the EF caused by the change of the final demand.Analysing the main influencing factors causing the change of the final demand of the EF can find change of resource and production conditions make the final demand of the EF increase, which profits from the scientific development, causing the production management more reasonable and making resources better utilized. However, the increase of population and the consumption per person leads to the great growth of the final demand of the EF. Trough comparing different influencing factors toward the total change of the EF, we can find the EF change of agricultural and industrial departments is up to 90% of the total change of the EF.The calculation of the EF and the analysing results indicates that along with the application of scientific technology and the advanced management, Shangdong province makes the social production have less and less influence to the environment and the final EF decrease through improving the utilization ratio of resource and production conditions. However, because of the big population base, the fast increase of the population and the consumption per person and the unreasonable industrial structure, the increase of the final demand of the EF far exceed the decrease brought by the improvement of technology. Some industrial departments consume vast energy, and the final demand of the EF in 2002 is more than in 1997 by 2.71×107ha. If the reasonable measures can not be implemented to solve the problems above, the road of sustainable development of Shangdong province will be full of difficulty and crisis.