| The paper mainly did research on simulation of the anti-radar missile (ARM)'s weapon system and evaluated it's combat effectiveness on the basis of simulation. Firstly, the paper introduced the background of research and the technical characteristic of ARM. The research status of ARM in main nations in the world (USA,Russia,Britain,France, Israel) and future development were also described. Secondly, the paper expounded the key technology and the fire control system of ARM. The key technology included control system.. warhead and fuse.. passive target orientation system etc. In the part of the fire control system, the basal composing.. main function.. working process were discussed in detail. Attacking method and launching method were also discussed. According to above research, six-degree of freedom system model of ARM was setup. The paper also researched launching boundary of ARM~ probability of launching outside boundary and losing chance inside boundary. Launching boundary of ARM is drawn through simulating on computer. The method of calculating probability of launching outside boundary and losing chance inside boundary was discussed in theory. The last part of this paper emphasized combat effectiveness of ARM. First of all, the whole ballistic trajectories of ARM was simulated and damage model of warhead was setup. Then the method of calculating damage probability of ARM was discussed. Finally, fragmentation probability of ARM was calculated with MONTE CARLO simulation and error analysis was carried out. |