Global Climate Change Hanzhong City, Winter Wheat Climate Fitness And Risk Evaluation

With the constantly of global climate change research, the study on the natural ecological system and the social economic system response to global climate change has gradually become the main fields. Research on the suitability and risk of crop response to climatic change has great significance to draw measurements and to ensure sustainable development of agriculture.In order to analyze the change of wheat suitability and risk in Hanzhong city, the article selected 11 weather stations in this area, using their daily average temperature,daily precipitation and daily sunshine from 1960 to 2007, using geographical information systems (GIS), and established a suitability and risk model for wheat to analysis the suitability and risk of wheat. Through analysis the author gets the following results.(1) From analyzing the spatial differences in wheat temperature suitability, precipitation suitability, sunshine suitability and climatic suitability in Hanzhong city, Hanzhong city is classified three types:suitability area, more suitability area and the most suitability area. The result shows that the wheat temperature suitability is increasing by 0.02/10a, climatic suitability reveal obvious phases by a smoothly speed, climatic suitability is increasing before the early 1970 and the variable rate is larger, decreasing from 1970 to 1950, but it is increasing at a larger speed from 1995 to 2007, from the analysis of the reasons, it could be seen that booting jointing climatic suitability and culm namely climatic suitability have great effect on the whole stage.(2) Based on the suitability change of per station, the wheat climatic suitability change in Hanzhong city is classified four types, the temperature suitability is increased, and the increasing range in the mountain is higher than in the plain, the precipitation suitability in the plain is decreasing larger than in the mountain, the sunshine suitability in the plain is decreasing larger than in the mountain and hills, the climatic suitability change has obvious space differences, it is decreasing larger in the plain than in the mountain.(3)The temperature suitability, precipitation suitability, sunshine suitability and climatic suitability in Hanzhong city are studied around the abrupt temperature change, the results indicate that it is beneficial for wheat in the mountain, but it is harmful for wheat in the plain.(4) The change trend of wheat risk has obvious spatial differences in Hanzhong city. The wheat climatic risk in Hanzhong city takes on a increasing trend in recent 47 years. In spatial change trend, the wheat climatic risk is decreasing in the mountain and increasing in the plain, the range in the plain is higher than in the mountain.(5) The temperature risk, precipitation risk, sunshine risk and climatic risk in Hanzhong city are studied around the abrupt temperature change, the results indicate that it is beneficial for wheat in the mountain, but it is harmful for wheat in the plain.