Dalian International Shipping Center Building Of Appropriate Scale

Northeast Asia becomes a core region of international container transport when the world shipping center is shifted from the Atlantic to the Pacific. During the development of container hub ports in northeast Asia many ports are exerting their efforts to compete for a new international shipping center. Dalian which has an advantage of port not only meets the challenge of northeast Asia port abroad but also the challenge from nationwide port around the Bohai Sea such as Qingdao and Tianjin.On the one hand, during the eleventh-five, elevation is still becoming the main tone of Dalian international shipping centre. Dalian port will continue to input and invest in the fundamental construction, as high as 59.5 billion yuan. On the other hand, the turnover of Dalian port is not enough, that is, the supply of cargo provided by Dalian port is short. Today, Dalian is short of the exact and reasonable layout. We need to deal with the issue how to construct Dalian international shipping centre.This thesis is striving to base on the total and systematic ideas. First, I analyze the modern international shipping center's definition and character, in the developed process of international shipping centre. Second, I analyze the layout and draw the conclusion of existing problems of constructive scale. Third, the exact and reasonable forecast of the turnover of Dalian international shipping centre is important for the layout and strategic dispose of Dalian international shipping centre in the future. By analyzing the historical data of Dalian port, the paper developed exponential forecast model and GM (1,1) forecast model and combined forecast model, and forecast the turnover of Dalian in the next few years. The result implied that by melting the advantages of the two former forecast method, combined forecast model can reduce error and increase the precision of forecast. In the meantime, I analyze the overturn of all kinds of special ports and receive the fit constructive scale. At last, I suggest that the layout and strategic dispose of Dalian international shipping centre should be designed step by step.