Beijing's Creative Talent To Demand Forecasting And Development

This thesis is designated to study the current situation and problems of talent resource development in Beijing in the creative economy oriented era. The study is combined with the principal and methods in Human Resource Development, Development Economy, Encourage Theories, Management, and Organization Behavior etc. It is also concerned with the forecasting problem of professionals demand in Beijing's creative industry's scientific research institutions.Firstly, relative principles and primary methods concerning talent forecasting science have been introduced briefly; the role of creative industries talents has been studied in details. Meanwhile, the significance of this study is interpreted.This thesis investigates and analyzes the quantity, position structure, age composition, and academic credentials of creative industries talents. On the basis of extensive investigation, analyze the present situation of talents and problems existed in development. On the basis of analysis and studying the different talent variation from 2000 to 2006 in Beijing creative industries, the remaining problems have been find out, while the number of requirement for professional ,super professional and postgraduates has been forecasted.Secondly, adopting Grey Model and another forecasting method on the basis of the interacting analysis of the relevant talents, the relative forecasting of the demand for postgraduates have been done .And then; the two results tend to the cognate by forecasting results comparison.Finally, aiming at the problem of the enlarging demand for talents, several methods have been put forwards ,so that the problem may be solved in five or ten years, and then put it on the right course.