Individual Housing Secured Loans Default Risk Empirical Research And Credit Control

Personal housing mortgage loans is an important component of the housing finance. Now lots of researches on the personal risk of the housing mortgage loans are some qualitative analysis, and researches based on the application of statistical models and tools of empirical study is still relatively small. In this paper, the starting point is from the empirical analysis and normative analysis,then it explores the important factor which impact the default risk of personal housing mortgage loans and gives recommendations about how to control the risk of default before loans.This paper get 56,372 samples of personal housing mortgage loans from a commercial banks in Jiangsu Province ,the final dates to be available are 34,119 samples,including samples of the normal 28,432 loans, and default samples of 5687.From the previous research results,this paper choose variables from four directions,then choose occupation, educational level, the value of the loan balance,housing location,forward house and existing house,price index and so on based on previous experience and the actual situation of bank loan files. The final variables is 23,and through statistical software SPSS17.0,descriptive statistics,factor analysis, Logistic regression analysis and discriminant analysis are used to make a empirical study of the factors which impact the personal housing mortgage loan default risk . The result show that the loan interest rate,price index,occupation, marital status, the monthly repayment amount of the monthly income have a significant impact about default. The result through the evaluation from Logistic regression model and discriminant analysis show that both two models can give good rate of predictive accuracy.Finally,the author of the study in accordance with the results of empirical analysis give some recommendations about default risk control before loans in personal housing mortgage loans of Chinese commercial banks.