| Food is very important that affects the people's livelihood and the development and stability of our society. The food security has become the core policy of very country all over the world. The ultimate goal of food security is: to make everyone have plenty of nutritious and secure food materialistically and economically at any time and to meet his/her need in meals and for and preferences in food to have an active and healthy life. The food security is an important part in the system of national economic security, which is paid special attention to by both developed countries and developing countries. Especially in our country with a quite big population, food security is much more concerned.Shangluo area lies in the Qingba mountain area of western China, and the food security of this area is of great significance to ensure the society stability, the increase of farmers' incomes, the construction of ecological environment and harmonious society. Shangluo area is an area mainly for agriculture, but the individual farming is still implemented in many places; there is no collective or industrial operating. To promote the development of economy in Shangluo area, it is necessary to reform the agriculture to suit the requirement of our times. In this case, Shangluo area can develop continuously in the wave of western large-scale development.This article analyses the change of food safety pattern in the 7 counties (cities) of Shanluo city between 1969 and 2005 from the aspect of time and space, based on the analysis of food productive force, and combined with the analysis of the condition of natural resources, the survey of terrains and landforms, land resources, climate resources, water resources and its characteristics, crop resources, and technological resources. At the same time,this article predicts the situation of the future 30 years in the whole Shangluo area and its each county. It analyses the index of tillable land pressure, the area of tillable land, the total food output, the population increase, the food output in per unit area in the whole Shangluo area and its every counties (cities), and the moving direction of the tillable land in the center is very clear. The results imply that:First: The index of tillable field pressure takes on a declining trend from 1969 to 2005 in the view of the whole Shangluo area, and the main reason is that the decreasing speed of minimum tillable land per person in the period is faster than that of the practical tillable field per person. In recent years, the index of tillable field pressure fluctuated a lot; it is mainly because of the natural calamities in specific years during the period. The contradiction between the population increase and the limit of food output and the decrease of tillable land is sharp; the assignment of protecting the tillable land, controlling the population and improving food output is arduous; the pressure of tillable land is great, the problem of regional food safety is severe. The total population and the food output in per unit tillable land show a increasing trend in the future 30years. It is expected that the per unit area yield 2784.7kg/hm2 in 2007 will add up to 488401kg/hm2 in 2036 and the total population 443820.3 in 2007 will add up to 532192.9 in 2036. However the tillable land per person shows a decreasing trend, it is predicted to drop to 0.03378hm2 per person in 2036 form 0.05480 hm2 per person in 2007. As to the Towns of Shangluo area, the food output has increased greatly in 7 towns from 1969 to 2005, but it is still far from well-off level 400kg food per person, besides the tillable land pressure is generally bigger than 1. There are differences in tillable land pressure between each towns in Shangluo area; the difference between 1969 and 1970 became smaller; the fluctuation between 1970 and 2006 became bigger; there are still the differences in food safety between different regions.Second: The focus of the tillable land pressure in Shangluo area changes with the patterns of the tillable land pressure in each town, and it move towards south in most years generally. This implies that the index of tillable land pressure of Shangzhou area and Danfeng declined to a big extent, and especially that of Luonan County declined to the biggest extent. For Shanyang County, the area of tillable land shows a declining trend during the future 30 years. It is predicted that the area will drop from 21750.64hm2 to 13432.99hm2. The total population the food output shows a rising trend, it is predicted that the total population will increase from o.4649million in 2007 to 0.69million in 2036, and the output will increase from 116763.8t in 2007 to 176874.4t in 2036. For Zhen' an County, the food output shows a rising trend, it is predicted to increase from 47680.05t to 84649.35t in 2036. However the area of tillable land and total population shows a declining trend, the area of tillable land will drop from 18974.49hm2 to 12254.34hm2 in 2036. It is worth noting that the total population will decrease. It is predicted to drop from 0.7784196million to 0.4115772million. For Zashui County, the food output and total population shows a rising trend. It is predicted that the food output will increase from 47680.05t in 2007 to 84649.35t in 2036. The total population will change suddenly; it is predicted to increase from 16.88672 in 2007 to 23.52335 in 2036. However the area of tillable land shows a declining trend; it is predicted to drop from 5572.48hm2 in 2007 to 2337.35hm2.Third: The food output of Shangluo area has a positive relation with the technological level of modern agriculture, and the introduction of agricultural science and technology will be an important method to improve the level of food safety. At the same time, to protect and exploit the tillable land deeply and to make use resources efficiently will be subject being concerned most for the agricultural development in this area. |
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