Shandong Province, Population Control, Economic Benefits Study

ABSTRACTFrom early 1 970s,with the policy of family planning being implemented inShandong Province, the population growth has l5塭n controlled efficiently, andnational economic growth has been a state of high speed. A great deal ofresearch about "population-economy" suggests that population control has apositive effect on economic growth. For the purpose of revealing the greatcontribution of population control in Shandong Province, a population-economy dynamic model is established by means of econometrics methods onthe basis of inquiring quantities of literature and statistics, and using thepopulation-economy dynamic model, the relations between population controland economic development in recent three decades is studied qualitatively andquantitatively. Pieces of couhtermeasure and suggestion are given for thefuture population control in Shandong Province.This paper is divided into four parts as the following:1.Introduction. The theoretical and practical meaning and the methods ofthis research are introduced briefly.2.Theoretic analysis. The outline of this article is drawn out, by analyzing`theory of economy-population" and "theory of economy-population " on thebasis of "two kinds of production" principle generated from Marxism.3.Practical analysis. Selecting such two items of indexes as input-outputratio of population control and contribute rate to macro economy, economicefficiency of population control in Shandong Province is analyzed practically.The whole process goes in three steps as following:(1)Population efficiency analysis of population control. The population size,which is avoided because of family planning in Shandong Province from 1971to 1999, is reckoned. Using the population data of past years provided by StatBureau of Shandong Province and Family Planning Commission of Shandong3Province, the populatidn status on the condition without population control issimulated by means of trend analyzing method.(2)Input analysis of population control. The composing factors ofpopulation control input system is analyzed, and the cost of population controlinput in past years is reckoned, using the spot check data of the year 2000provided by Family Planning Commission of Shandong Province.(3)Economic efficiency analysis of population control. First, on the basis ofthe theory of child fostering cost, the allowance for the youngster saved bypopulation control is reckoned, using spot check data of the year 1999provided by Family Planning Commission of China and the outcomesreckoned in step (1), then, the input-output ratio of population control inShandong Province is worked out by comparing the allowance with the inputcost of population control reckoned in step (2). Second, using many items ofrealistic indexes of population and economy from 1971 to 1999 in ShandongProvince, a population-economy dynamic model is established by means ofeconometrics methods, and, the economic development trail on the conditionwithout population control is simulated, using the outcomes reckoned in step(1), then the simulated trail is compared with the realistic one to work out thecontribute rate in each item of index of population control to macro economy,and then, the final contribute rate is got by means of expert marking toensure the proportional value of each item.4.Countermeasure and suggestion. On the basis of the research, pieces ofcountermeasure and suggestion are given that a health policy system shouldbe found to enhance a beneficent cycle for population development, and thesystem should involve such two parts as exogenous one and endogenous one,meanwhile, the inscape of the policy system is expatiated.