Research On Influencing Factors Of Rural Population Aging In Shandong Province

The aging of the population is an economic and social problem in today’s world.In Shandong Province,especially in rural areas,aging is very serious.The number of elderly population in Shandong Province is the largest in the country,and the proportion of elderly population in Shandong Province is second in the country.In 2019,the aging rate of the rural permanent population in Shandong Province reached 37.19%.However,the problem of aging rural population has always been neglected.Firstly,this paper gives a detailed overview of the literature related to population aging,the overall current situation of aging in Shandong Province,and the characteristics and impact of rural aging.Secondly,this article adopts econometric methods,based on the statistical data of Shandong Province from 1990 to 2019,establishes a multiple linear regression model,and conducts an empirical analysis of the influencing factors of Shandong Province as a whole and rural aging.Finally,by comparing Shandong Province as a whole and the influencing factors of rural population aging,more targeted policy recommendations are put forward.This article explores the influencing factors of population aging,divided into two aspects:Shandong Province as a whole and rural areas.For Shandong Province as a whole,this paper selects 6 factors representing economic development,pension burden,etc.as independent variables,and selects the coefficient of the elderly population as the dependent variable,and conducts regression analysis.It is found that only the number of retirees and the urbanization rate passed the significance test at the level of 0.05,when controlling for other variables unchanged,the number of retirees increased by 1 unit,the elderly population coefficient will increase by 7.595 units;for every unit increase in the urbanization rate,the coefficient of the elderly population will increase by 0.848 units.For the rural areas of Shandong Province,this paper selects 8 factors as independent variables,and the rural population over 60 years old as the dependent variable.Regression analysis shows that only the rural per capita disposable income and urbanization rate pass the significance level of0.05.The test shows that when controlling for other variables unchanged,the per capital disposable income of rural residents increased by 1 for each unit,the proportion of the rural population over 60 years old will increase by 8.815 units;for every unit increase in the urbanization rate,the proportion of the rural population over 60 years old will increase by1.794 units.Comprehensive empirical analysis results show that urbanization has increased the province’s overall and rural aging;the number of retirees reflects the level of pension burden,which is positively correlated with the coefficient of the elderly population;the increase in the per capita income of rural residents has aggravated rural aging.The demographic transition theory confirms that the increase in the rate of urbanization and the increase in the per capita disposable income of rural residents will lead to an increase in population aging.Based on the empirical results,combined with the qualitative analysis of this article,three policy recommendations are put forward:First,fully liberalize birth restrictions and delay the aging process;second,implement "reverse urbanization" and give play to the role of the "reservoir" of the village and town population;third,adjust pension policies,and provide pension funds to both rural and urban areas.