Construct The System Of Regional Macro-economic Sentiment Indicator Gray

The macroscopic economic prosperity and early warning analysis is a set of effective method which, with computer technology, analyzes, monitors and early warns the economic fluctuation according to the statistic law reflected in economic cycling. With the further development of economic reform and the establishment of market economic system, the applied research of macroscopic economic monitoring and early warning system has been spread step by step in China. The National Statistic Bureau and most provinces have set up their own early warning system. To establish the index system of macroscopic economic prosperity is the premise and base of realizing the macroscopic economic monitoring and early warning. This thesis discusses the methods of constructing the index system of regional macroscopic economic prosperity.The thesis analyzes the limitations of the current classified index method of prosperity which has been applying in constructing the index system of regional macroscopic economic prosperity; introduces gray system method to the classified index of regional macroscopic economic prosperity; and establishes the analytic method of the gray trendy degree of incidence. Furthermore, the thesis applies the gray trendy degree of incidence in gray clusters to help the construction of the index system of regional macroscopic economic prosperity.I. The Investigations on the Gray Trendy Degree of Incidence and its Problems.1. The Defects of Common Used Degrees of Incidence.The applied gray degrees of incidence include: general degree of incidence, absolute degree of incidence, relative degree of incidence and slope degree of incidence. The defects of general degree of incidence are: 1) the incidence order relating to the method of initial valuation; 2) the incidence order relating to resolution ratio; 3) unsatisfying the norms; 4) only reflecting the direct incidence, but not the negative incidence. Though absolute degree of incidence, relative degree of incidence and slope degree of incidence have improved a lot, yet they haven't satisfied the norms and couldn't reflect the negative incidence.2. The Reasons of the DefectsThe reasons relate to both the calculating method of the degree of incidence and the following elements: the definition of curve similarity, the agreement of the norms and the method of initial valuation.3. Three aspects should be considered when applying gray incidence analytic method to the classified index of regional macroscopic economic prosperity:1) the similar indicators have the same or most similar developing situation; 2) the degree of incidence chosen should reflect both the direct incidence and the negative incidence; 3) the degree of incidence chosen should satisfy the norms.II. Time Difference Gray Trendy Degree of IncidenceThis part tries to introduce the fundamental thought of gray statistics. Then it defines the trendy degree of incidence and the analytic method of time difference trendy degree of incidence on classified index of regional macroscopic economic prosperity.Definition 1: Let time sequence: X0 = (x0(1),x0(2),...,.x0(n)),If ,then sequences X0 and X1 have the same developing situation; if then sequences X0 and X1 "play chess".Theorem 1: Sequence X and F = aX + C ( a > 0 , constant sequence C = (c,c,...,c) , c is a real number) have the same developing situation.Definition 2: Letone-unit time sequence, andThen is X0 and xi.'s gray trendy degree of incidence, (k + 1) is x0 's incidence coefficient to x, on the point of k + 1 .Theorem 2: Gray trendy degree of incidence has the following characters:1) , X0and Xt are negative incidence;2) Symmetry: 3) Uniqueness;4) Norms: , among which, a>0,C is a constant sequence;5) Gray trendy degree of incidence reflects the close degree of the developing situation of time sequences, the closer of the developing situation of these two sequences, the greater of the trendy degree of incidence, and vive versa. Gray trendy degre...