China's Labor Supply And Demand Dynamics Study

With a large indentation, the supply and demand of our country1 s labor force always keep the un-balanceable situation and after our nation had been founded. Before the reformation, we had been taken up the target of completely employment, and the unbalance had not convexly appeared; however it appeared to be " unobvious unemployed" in the town and the village. With the process of the reformation, the unemployment has appeared gradually into ''lay-off and " the transfer of the rural labors into town". As merchandise, labor has such special characteristics as long limited efficacy supply and lagging. So supply of the labor force in any period is the result of labor force producing of a past time. Generally speaking, the supply of labor is relevant to the rate of participant in short tern and to population scale in long tern. As a subsidiary demand, the demand of labor force is relevant to such reasons as the development of economy, the input of fixed assets, the improvement of technology, the accumulation of capital and some kinds of systems. Since 1952, the factors have been changed so much that had influenced the demand of labor force deeply. But there was a true fact, that is, the supply is larger than the demand in the past fifty years. It is the enormous cardinal number of the supply that determines the situation of the unbalance during the past fifty years; on the other hand, the lack of demand attribute to it mostly. For all that, the reasons that influence the supply and the demand of labor force had been changed so much since 1952 that the supply and the demand appeared different characteristics.Studying the stresses and tactics about the characteristics, the process of formatting, the factors, making a crude demand and supply of labor and put-ing forward some suggestion about the tend of demand and supply is the focal point in the paper. Firstly, this paper expresses and comments on some theories of the supply and demand of labor force, providing the basis of thefollowing analyses. Secondly, clarifying the definition of labor force, the thesis analyzes the quantity, behavior, quality and the constructions of our country's labor force from the both sides of supply and demand dynamically, and deeply study the factors influencing the supply of labor and makes the conclusion that the total quantity of supply is increasing and the marginal supply is decreasing; the quality supply is improving; the behavior of supply tend to marketing mechanism. The demand of labor has some characteristics: the total demand is increasing; the marginal demand is descending; the construction of demand is optimized; the planning demand is decreasing. The paper point out that the market gradually adjusts the demand behavior with the reforms deepening. Thirdly, the paper analyzes the reasons of un-balance of demand and supply from the aspect of quality and construction, and argues that the situation of demand and supply is characterized by total surplus and structural deficiency. The large scale of population and the high rate of labor participation lead to that the total supply surpass the demand. The capital structure, the improving technology and capital-dominance industrialization way result in the deficient demand, so they become the key reasons of unbalance situation. Before the reforms the changing of employment structure can't catch up with the pace of the industrial adjustment, which is closely related to the economic strategies. After the reforms, the industrial adjustment makes the employment structure more reasonable, so the contradiction of the un-balance situation is lessening. At last, the paper establishes a predicting model to forecast that the un-balance situation will last for about ten years, and discuss some related policies.