Aviation Project Risk Quantification Methods Research

Like other complicated high-tech projects, aviation projects are strongly innovative; they need high intensity of investment and often take years. In the different stages and subsystems of aviation projects, there are often vast various risk factors, which are mutually dependent as pairs of causes and effects because of their cross influence. Just due to these reasons, even a little insufficient consideration or an oversight in aviation projects can cause fatal loss. Therefore, it is very important and quite necessary to evaluate and assess risks of aviation projects. However, because of the special requirements of aviation projects, most of current risk analysis methods can't be applied directly to risk analysis of aviation projects. Aiming at this problem, this dissertation mainly focuses on the research of qualitative and quantitative risk analysis methods of aviation projects. Based on triangular fuzzy number, the analytic hierarchy process and Monte Carlo method, a new qualitative risk analysis method and a new quantitative risk analysis method are proposed to assess risks of aviation projects and their impacts.The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:1. Risks of aviation projects. Risk identification is the basis of risk analysis. Hence, this dissertation at first had an in-depth analysis to risks in aviation projects, including their characters, relationship, classification and basic principles of evaluation.2. Qualitative risk analysis methods of aviation projects. After discussing the feasibility of current qualitative risk methods in aviation project, based on triangular fuzzy number and the analytic hierarchy process, a new qualitative risk analysis method is proposed to assess risks of aviation projects in this dissertation. This method uses the triangular fuzzy number to represent experts' judgment information of risk factors and the analytic hierarchy process to rank these risk factors, and so successfully gains the detailed ranking of aviation project's risk factors by risk probability, risk loss and both of them.3. Quantitative risk analysis methods of aviation projects. With the comparison of current quantitative risk analysis methods, Monte Carlo method is chosen to assess the impact of risks in aviation project. Using this method, this dissertation has successfully implemented aviation project completion time's risk analysis. In addition, to further the schedule risk analysis, this dissertation has invited two criticality indices. Activity Criticality Probability (ACP) and Activity Cruciality Index (ACI), to identify the high-risk activities and reveal the distribution of critical paths in the network.4. Risk analysis software of aviation projects. For examining our research, this dissertation designed and developed a web-based risk analysis software usingASP.NET(C#), Java Applet and SQL Server techniques. In chapter 5, the architecture of the web-based risk analysis software, the detailed design of all models, also the final developed results are presented and displayed. At last, some aviation project is introduced as an example to demonstrate the process and validity of our methods.