The Simulation Method Is Applied Research, Risk Assessment Of The Progress Of The Project

It is one of the important differentiations between modern project management and traditional project management that risk management has been introduced to modern project management. Due to the unprecedentedly vigorous competence in the market, the success or failure of project is related to it's schedule, quality and cost. But the schedule risk of project will baffle the successful implementing of project and prolong the project schedule. So it is very important for the manager and investor, indeed for the development of the whole national economy to evaluate the schedule risk of project scientifically, reasonably and efficiently.Firstly, the degree of the development of project management and risk management, the explanation of the importance of project risk management, and the expatiation of the theory and method of project schedule plan, the status of project schedule risk evaluation and the development and application of simulation technique are introduced in this paper. Then the advantages and disadvantages of simulation technique and program evaluation and review technique for evaluating the schedule risk of project are apart listed in the paper, and that the theory and method of Monte Carlo method is discussed emphatically in the paper. Finally the method for evaluating the schedule risk of project by creating Monte Carlo simulation model with the software Excel is presented in the paper, which includes modeling, simulating, counting, testing and evaluating, and makes the complex and hardquantitative analysis work-risk evaluation easy and convenient, the result ofevaluation more precise and credible.This paper is an application research on evaluating the schedule risk of project by Monte Carlo method with the software Excel. Therefore it has certain reference value for the research and practice of project schedule risk evaluation, especially for the risk evaluation of the project whose work times are random.