Aerospace Research Project Risk Identification And Assessment Methods

Aerospace program is a complicated system engineering. The success of the R&D can realize the huge benefit in polity, economy and society; while if it fails, it will bring about tremendous loss and even destructive disaster. So it is particularly important for the aerospace program to put the risk management into practice. At present the people have more understanding of the risk and think much of risk management. From the whole place, however, the recognition to the risk management on aerospace program is mostly manifested on stronger consciousness of risk management, there are still in short of guide on how to carry on the risk management.Basing on the commonness of the risk management and the characteristic of the aerospace program, this paper, closely surrounding the trait of R&D, discussed the risk identification and evaluation method adapted to the aerospace program on four aspects: organization, process, means and tools. It divided the organization into several parts such as special-item and special-duty risk management group; it also established the risk responsibility matrix combining organization structure. On process aspect, it put forward dynamic risk identification and evaluation process based on milestone-decision-making and fix-time/fix-event. Then using the system engineering theory, it identified and evaluated the risk as the sequence of unit to integer and then reversely. The methods of WBS combining develop route and expert investigation, which were used to identify the overall and special risks respectively, were expounded in this paper. The probability/consequence matrix and critical analysis, which qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed the failure of the parts and apparatus on the components level, were analyzed in design risk evaluating. The evaluating process of risk factors and risk influence diagram, which was for the technology risk on the sub-system level, were dissertated in this paper. At the end of this thesis, the molding and hierarchy analyzing of fuzzy synthesize evaluation method, which was for the program risk on the whole level, is discussed in detail. Thus the maneuverability guide of risk identification and evaluation on the R&D of aerospace program is established. It is also of value of reference to other national defense program.