Study On Risk Evaluation Of Military Weapon Equipment Development Project

Military weapons and equipment are the basis of military construction and the concrete embodiment of a country’s comprehensive national strength.The development of military weapons and equipment runs through the whole human society.Modern war is the competition of military weapons and equipment under the integration of high-tech.Whoever owns the most advanced weapons will have the initiative of the war.In view of the situation of modern war,the development of high technology and the development of new military weapons and equipment is the primary premise for a country to consolidate and build national defense,and it is also a powerful driving force to promote social development and promote the advancement of productive forces.Therefore,new technologies,new methods have been widely used in the development of military weapons and equipment.At the same time,the technical characteristics of military weapon equipment development project,such as high investment,high complexity and multi-disciplinary integration,determine the high risk of military weapon equipment development project.The quality of risk evaluation and management of military weapon equipment development directly affects the success or failure of the project.Starting from the perspective of modern project risk management,this paper conducts project risk evaluation research for the characteristic object of military weapons and equipment development projects,first introduces the basic theory of project risk analysis and identification,analyzes the process and characteristics of military weapons and equipment development projects,and gives the risk classification principles and typical risk events of military weapons and equipment development projects;Based on the system using the analytic hierarchy method to calculate the importance weight of risk indicators at all levels,the BP neural network risk evaluation model of the project is established to achieve intelligent risk evaluation of the military weaponry and equipment development project;finally,empirical analysis is conducted,and a specific project risk evaluation analysis is carried out for an integrated electronic system development project of the M Institute,and the Delphi method is used to obtain sample data,and the BP neural network risk evaluation model is trained to determine the model parameters.Finally,the risk evaluation model of BP neural network was used to predict the total risk of an integrated electronic system development project of M Institute,and the evaluation result was low risk level,which provided a valuable reference for subsequent project risk management.A study on the risk management strategy of an integrated electronic system development project of M Institute was carried out,the particularity of its technical risk was analyzed,and the technical risk control strategy and the monitoring method of project risk were proposed.It can be concluded that,based on the established risk index system of military weapon equipment development projects,combined with AHP and BP neural network,the importance assessment of risk indicators at all levels and risk intelligence assessment for an integrated electronic system development project of M Institute can be realized.Reasonable countermeasures can then be taken for project risks according to the risk assessment results.Generally speaking,for different military weapon equipment development projects,the project risk index system and evaluation method proposed in this paper can be adopted as well according to the project conditions,which can be of universal use.