Expected Under The Theoretical Perspective Of North Korea's Nuclear Policy Analysis

North Korea nuclear issue is closely related to the peace and development of Korea Peninsula and East Asia at large. Based on the detailed elaboration of the analytical framework and related concepts about prospect theory, this paper offers a comprehensive analysis about three North Korea nuclear crisis.Prospect theory argues that people tend to be risk-averse for gains but simultaneously to be risk-acceptant for losses. When the theory is used to explain North Korea nuclear issue, it is clear that North Korea leaders made different decisions according to their understanding of the objective and subjective conditions. Their decisions can be put into three categories-the tendency of loss avoidance and risk acceptance, risk-averse when facing a disaster or to suffer heavy losses and avoidance of internal loss and acceptance of external risks.During the first North Korean nuclear crisis, North Korea's domestic situation was relatively stable, the impact of the external threat perception on policy makers held a dominant position. As the international environment changes, the crisis sense of North Korean policy-makers continued to strengthen. Under the guidance of the loss prospect, North Korea showed a strong tendency of risk acceptance. However, when extreme losses may occur, the DPRK will take a preference reversal, that is, show a clear tendency to avoid risk.During the second crisis, due to the deterioration of North Korea's domestic economic situation and social instability, along with the tough policy of new U.S. Government toward the DPRK, the DPRK's decision-makers understood the severe situation of their system security. The prospect of the possible extreme loss was the decisive factor that North Korean leader, in order to avoid greater losses, chose to gain strategic initiative by taking venturesome nuclear policy.As a continuation of the second, the third time eruption of nuclear crisis had a more complicated background mainly due to the substantial change in South Korea's policy and the deterioration of Kim Jong Il's health. Despite these conditions, I think a peaceful settlement is the best way to solve the DPRK nuclear issue.After analyzing three North Korea nuclear crisis by applying the analytical model of prospect theory, we can draw two conclusions. First, prospect theory provides a better analysis model for crisis decision-making in uncertainty condition. Second, the judgment on the gains and losses of North Korean leaders is the key to understand North Korean nuclear policy.