Urban Fertility Inclination After 80 And The Number Of Births Empirical Research

As the main child bearing in the future,it can give significant reference to the change of fertility policy when we research the features and factors of the desired bearing and the number of child bearing of 80's one-child in urban,and possible change of our population under the level of their desired bearing.The research combines the methods of Demography and Sociology,and use Demographer Harvey Leibenstein's theory about the right choice of the marginal child and the estimated method of beared mean of married and beared families'desired number of child bearing of one-child to explore and analyze.Main conclusions of the research are the followings:Firstly,ideal number of child bearing is one or two overall,and more people choose one child;Secondly,married people's express desire for bearing the second child is not very strong,and the spouse from one-child families'is lower than the spouse from other families';Thirdly,although the gender preference of male is not changed throughly,it has been weakened already,and they pursue one family with a son and a daughter;Fourthly,ideal interval between marrying and bearing,and ideal interval between the beared time of the first and second child is about among three or four years;Fifthly,the actual number of child bearing is one or two almostly under the current fertility policy. These features of the desired bearing and the number of child bearing of 80's one-child in urban are the result of society,economy,culture, personal or domestic condition.The result of population forecast suggest that 80's one-child's future fertility is obviously more high than the level under the current policy if we relax the restriction of the second child,but they are all under 2.1,and it will increase when the number of the spouse from one-child family become more and more.Meanwhile,when we relax the restriction of the second child,the sex ratio will be higher,the number of the family which is composed by one couple,their parents and two children will increase appropriately,and the speed of population growth also will be fast.Therefore,the adjustment of our current fertility policy should be planned carefully.