The Impact Of School-age Population Changes On The Demand Of Compulsory Education Resources After The "universal Two-child" Policy

With the acceleration of the "aging" process of the population in the 21 st century,China has adjusted the current strategy in succession to improve the fertility level.Therefore,the fertility policy has been adjusted from the "single two-child policy" to the "universal two-child policy" to actively deal with the "aging" of the population.The implementation of the "universal two-child policy" may lead to the periodic development of the school-age population change in the future,which brings new challenges to the demand for compulsory education resources.When the change of school-age population is in the period of rising to the peak,the scale of change will increase in a pulse-like way and there will be a peak of enrollment,resulting in a rapid expansion of the demand for compulsory education resources.Because the implementation of policy has a certain time and lag,even if the policy adjustment is not ideal.If the policy plays its role when the school-age population falls back to the trough period,serious waste of educational resources will occur and the quality of compulsory education will be seriously affected.Therefore,with an eye to the school-age population changes brought about by the "universal two-child policy",the paper accurately predicted the changing trend and the changing trend of the demand for compulsory education resources,explored the dilemma of the demand for compulsory education resources and proposed countermeasures to plan in advance.In this paper,the effect of the universal two-child policy,population prediction methods and the resources of compulsory education allocation standards and other related literature are interpreted to understand the mechanism of school-age population changes affecting education resources.Based on this background,moderate population theory and balanced education development theory are introduced to further analyze the influencing mechanism of school-age population on educational resources.Then Leslie matrix model is constructed and MATLAB7.0 software is combined to predict the changing trend of school-age population and the changing trend of the demand for compulsory education resources in Hebei province.Finally,the plight of the demand for compulsory education resources in Hebei province from 2019 to 2046 is analyzed and countermeasures are proposed for reference.This study uses three research methods: literature interpretation,statistical analysis and comparative research.According to the predicted results of relevant trends,the school-age population of primary and secondary schools in Hebei province will change periodically in accordance with the law of "rising--declining--rising",resulting in the following difficulties for future compulsory education resources: "batch" temporary substitute reduces the teaching quality of primary and secondary schools;The head teacher management function "absence" and "offside" exist simultaneously;The replacement of "missing" and "over" in the teaching staff affects teachers' working enthusiasm;The replacement of "large class" and "small class" leads to teacher burnout.Funds for compulsory education are generally inadequate;Primary and secondary education funds are unevenly distributed and lack of stability;The imbalance between supply and demand of infrastructure allocation is more prominent;It has become more difficult to integrate high-quality compulsory education infrastructure.To cope with the dilemma of future compulsory education resource demand,the following countermeasures can be taken: to develop the "reserve teachers" plan and introduce resources through multiple channels;Adjust the head teacher's authority,promote the level structure conversion;Draw lessons from "establishment bank",coordinate to realize establishment dynamic adjustment;Implement the people-oriented management to improve the ability of middle and primary school teachers to resist pressure;Diversified adjustment of the way of education funds financing;Constructing the budget management system of primary and secondary school education funds;Construct the management mode of nine-year school;We will adjust the way we integrate quality compulsory education infrastructure.