| The aging of population is the development trend of world, and the old age question of population has become one of major questions of world concern. The population amount of Shandong province is large to be noticed in China and unavoidably has the same trend, so it is essential to study on the population aging and the insurance provided for the aged hi Shandong province. This paper studies on the development of the population aging and the mode provided for the aged. Full text divides in five parts altogether:The first part: preface. The primary contents include three titles: the aged and the population aging; the status and trend of the aging population in the world; the status and trend of the aging population in China. In this part, the concepts of the aged and the population aging are explained distinctly, the development traits and trend of population aging in world and China are stated reasonedly. In a word, this part establishes theory and practice basis for the later analysis.The second part: the aging course analysis of Shandong population. The most before all others in this part by analyzing natural changes condition of the Shandong total population, the change of population age composition type, development of population age pyramid and old age at age to foster the detailed analysis of coefficient change, and unfolds before one's eyes a course of aging development of Shandong population, then four protruding characteristics of aging development of Shandong population are summed up out on this foundation: population aging speed is fast; District difference is clear, Urban and rural difference is notable; the population age structure in " gold particular period " of population and at the initial stage of population aging. Then having analyzed the cause of formation of population aging of Shandong, points out that the aging of population is not temporary transient and accidental appearance, it is raised with the societyeconomy development and civilization education standard and the hygienic condition improvement of science and technology advance and medical treatment closely, but the emergence of the aging of population chiefly is owing to the population birth rate and death rate descent. Finally this paper analyzes the mutual relation between the aging of Shandong population and economy, using correlation analysis and regression analysis statistics method to reach to the conclusion that the relations is mutually related closely between the aging of population and economy development.The third part: the coming aging development trend of Shandong population is calculated. According to the changing rules of equally expected life span discovered by demographist Coale and Demeny, the paper point out that the equally expected life span will be lengthened and the extent will be reduced gradually, moreover, the sexual distinction difference of life span will be reduced. Hereafter being the forecasting to the old age population coefficient, this text has been applied two kinds of regression model, namely univariate linear model and logarithmic model, and thought over three kinds of economic speed of development (high, middle, low) in the logarithmic model to forecast the old age population coefficient respectively. Finally, by analyzing the forecasted value and the inertia law of population development, the paper points out the lengthening of the population equally expected life span will push forward the aging of population step by step to the advanced age development; The development trend of the population aging continues to be clear, and just appears a stage characteristic; Furthermore, The population aging speed in rural area will be faster than in the city.The fourth part: analysis on the present situation of the guarantee provided for the aged in Shandong. By analyzing and summing up the old age committee investigation material of Shandong carefully, the paper points out the present situation of guarantee provided for the aged inShandong: it still is the major method that the family... |
PDF Full Text Request