Forecast Of Population Development And Analysis Of The Population Index In Heilongjiang Province

The population problem has always been the core issue of human social political and e conomic development, the coordinated development of population and economy is a major is sue of economic research. Although China has a vast, vast territory and abundant resources, b ut the amount of population Chinese rankedfirst in the world, the average person occupied res ources are relatively few, today the development of the society mainly emphasizes the coordi nated development of population, society and environment, so the population problem has bee omean important problem restricting economic development and enhance the comprehensive n ational strength, there is more important to all countries of therapid development ofeconom y. Especially in the process of modernization, we should conscientiously do a good job of p opulation control, resource conservation, Protect environment of some aspects of this work, th e development of coordinated development of population growth and social productivity, and economic adaptation. Population is an important factor that cannot be ignored in the provincia1development, as the impetus of provincial economic development, population quantity directl y affect the provincial economic development level, resource utilization, ecological environme nt and social average capital occupancy. The number of population is one of the important dri ving force of economic development in provincial, too much or too little population, caused ei ther by the pressure of population and ecological instability problem of huge, or sufficient mo tive force of economic development, thus limiting the economic development. Therefore, accu rate and reasonable population index analysis is the development of provincial economy devel opment plan, policy and population province based social decision making and the powerful ba sis. The population of Heilongjiang Province as a part of China population also has such as t he population quality is not high, the aging of the population, the size of the labor force too much and so on. Prediction of population quantity andpopulation index as a basic work to s olve the population problem, it analysis of the change, population forecast has practical signifi cance to future populationstructure, can be formulated as Heilongjiang future population polic y, referencebasis for the sustainable development strategy of population, society and environm ent This paper mainly use the model using discrete population development equations Song Jian, and on the basis of population development equationanalysis of the mortality function, f ertility function parameter equation andnumerical solution, predict the index of population in Heilongjiang Province in the future50years, careful analysis and the population index tren d, of course whenthe establishment of the prediction scheme, the most important task is todet ermine how to determine the adjustment after the sixth census of the total fertility rate, becaus e the total fertility rate directly affects the change of totalpopulation, population change and ef fect of each index.This paper is divided into three parts:The first part is the theory, the theoretical background of the development of important population, objective and significance of the development and change of population forecast model and dynamic research at home and abroad, the prediction of population.The second part mainly discusses the Heilongjiang province population prediction process, selection of variables and data needed and calculation, the focus is on the research and establishment of model in several related function prediction of population:education function, mortality function and transfer function. Programming with the VB language of computer, variation in fertility model function and mortality function by fitting the data, and then get reproductive function and mortality function, so we can get the function of immigration future prediction period fertility patterns, death rate and the population outflow forecasting.The third part is the conclusion part, research on the prediction results, analysis of variation and trends of the future population of Heilongjiang Province during the index, and the influence of population change on society, economy of Heilongjiang province. Points out that the total population of Heilongjiang province in2014will show a downward trend, the population negative growth, fertility level will be low growth over to zero growth. Low fertility level there is the bottom line, not the fertility level of the lower the better. The Heilongjiang province total fertility rate is far less than the maintenance of population replacement fertility alternation of2.1generations. This will not only bring the total number of Heilongjiang province population growth rate in the continuous slowing down, and the population age structure is undergoing significant changes, the proportion of the population has been reduced in children and the proportion of the elderly population continues to rise, coupled with the accelerated development of social economy, reduce the population mortality, prolong the average life expectancy the proportion of the elderly population increase, thus, the elderly dependency ratio rose, labor too little, and aging population, and therefore only control population quantity is not advisable measure, control the population age structure can effectively solve the above problem fundamentally...