Research On The Construction And Application Of Population Development Monitoring Index System In China

Population problem is always the primary problem restricting China’s economic development,selection of monitoring indicators of keeping pace with The Times,to carry out effective surveillance population,It is a realistic and urgent task to study and judge the present situation of China’s population scientifically.This paper tries to selecting indicators that are both important,sensitive and operable,and determines the corresponding measurement model and method,so as to carry out a comprehensive dynamic monitoring of long-term population development.Through the analysis of relevant data for the realization of China’s long-term balanced population development to provide reference experience.Specifically,this paper consists of two parts.Construct monitoring index system and measure model of population development in our country: first,in clear related concept and the balanced development theory,the moderate population theory and population on the basis of the interpretation and discussion of optimization theory,constructed the theoretical framework of this article and the population system elements.Secondly,on the basis of the above,the index screening,preliminary build monitoring index system of population development in our country,then through two rounds of Delphi expert consultation in a filter the final index system,includes eight secondary indicators and 24 tertiary indicators.Thirdly,using the system coordination degree model for reference,this paper constructs a measurement model of China’s population development from three aspects: population development level,population internal equilibrium degree and population balanced development degree.The second part,carries on the comprehensive evaluation to our country population development situation.Using the measurement model of China’s population development constructed in this paper and the data of the seventh population census,the population development situation of 31 provinces in China is comprehensively evaluated:（1）calculated the provinces in China’s population development level,degree of internal equilibrium and population balanced development,and using the method of system clustering to 31 provinces clustering to verify that the calculation results,the calculation,not to achieve balanced development of the state of the population has seven provinces and cities: Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Liaoning,Jilin,Heilongjiang and Tibet.（2）Analyzed factors restricting the balanced development of China’s population.The following conclusions are drawn: Tibet is mainly restricted by the level of population quality and population redistribution;Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai are mainly restricted by population reproduction,population age structure,population social structure and population geographical distribution.The development of population size restrict the region.（3）The present situation of population development in China is analyzed from different dimensions,and the main influencing factors are discussed.The final conclusions of this study are as follows:（1）The construction of China’s population development monitoring index system needs to comprehensively consider the constituent elements of the population;The measurement of China’s population development should be carried out from two aspects: development level and internal balance;At this stage,we should focus on China’s population structure and population health level.（2）From the comprehensive evaluation results of population development in 31 provinces in China,;The level of population development in most areas of China is not coordinated with the internal balance of population,and the high-level balanced population development has not been realized;Under different levels of economic and social development,the factors restricting the balanced development of population in various regions are different;Economic,policy,concept and other factors will affect the balanced development of China’s population.