A Study On The Influencing Factors Of China 's Export To ASEAN' S Textile Export

ASEAN has become one of the important trading partners of China with the rapid development of ASEAN and the establishment of China-ASEAN free trade area. Textiles products have become important trade goods between China and ASEAN.lt is useful for China to make our Textiles products’ export to ASEAN grow steadily, promote our Market share and consolidate our partnership with ASEAN that discussing what causes fluctuation of our export and putting forward some suggestions.Firstly, we describe the value of trade, structure of products and markets of China’s Textiles products’ export to ASEAN from 1992 to 2014.We find that the total amount of Textiles products’ export from China to ASEAN in this stage is increasing, but the structure of products and markets change a lot. Secondly, we describe the fluctuation of export into short cycle and long cycle with the direct method of describing growth and H-P filtering method. And we find volatility of export is very obvious by evaluating our present situation of export with length, nature, position and coefficient of wave. The volatility will make negative effects on our growth of export. Thirdly, we give two levels decomposition of reasons which cause the export’s fluctuation with the model of constant market share: The first level analysis finds that structure effect, competitive effect and the cross effect are the important reasons. The structure effect is always positive which indicating increased demand for Textiles products from ASEAN promote the growth of China’s exports. The competitive effects is positive all the time but negative during 1997-1998, which demonstrating that China’s Textiles products’ lasting competitiveness is not enough. Most of the cross effect is positive, which illustrating that our export are consistent with the import of ASEAN for most time. When the total effect is positive, our export of Textiles products to ASEAN grow. The second level analysis decomposes structure effect into growth effect, structure effect of product, structure effect of market and competitiveness effect into comprehensive competitiveness effect, product competitiveness effect and market competition effect. The results found that except the market structure effect is positive, the other effect appeared in the research stage is negative. Which explained that the change of Import demand from ASEAN is the most important cause of unreasonable market structure, China’s Textiles products do not have lasting competitiveness is the second big reason.Finally, we put forward the following suggestions to make our export of Textiles products to ASEAN grow steadily based on the results of decomposition effect: 1.Carrying out active product strategy improve the competitiveness of our Textiles products. 2. Adjusting and optimizing the structure of products reduce the loss caused by the contradiction between supply and demand. 3. Implementing market diversification strategy reduce risk of the export. 4.Playing the service function of the government provide policy and information support for enterprises. 5. Playing an active role of CAFTA strengthen communication and cooperation in Textiles fields between China and ASEAN.