Research On The Influencing Factors Of China's Export Fluctuation Of Russian Agricultural Products

With the continuous advancement of the "Belt and Road" policy,bilateral trade between China and Russia has grown rapidly.However,in the agricultural trade between the two countries,there has been a trade deficit between China and Russia in recent years.It is significantly higher than the export growth rate,and the trade deficit in the field of agricultural products has gradually increased.Based on the current status of agricultural trade between China and Russia,this article analyzes the characteristics of the agricultural product export fluctuation cycle,and deeply studies the influencing factors of export changes in the fluctuation cycle.Provides ideas for China to reverse its trade deficit,optimize the export structure of agricultural products,expand China's export growth of agricultural products to Russia,and further increase the market share of Chinese agricultural products in Russia.At present,Russia is one of China's most important agricultural product export markets in Europe.This article first analyzes China's agricultural product export trade data with Russia since 1996.It is not difficult to see that the form of agricultural product trade between the two countries is mainly inter-product trade.The types of products are mainly concentrated in the five chapters of products HS20,HS08,HS07,HS16,and HS03,and the growth scale of China's exports of agricultural products to Russia fluctuates greatly.Then through further analysis of the fluctuation cycle measurement,it was found that in the sample research cycle,except for the two short periods of 2002-2007 and 2016-2018,which were growth-type fluctuations,most of the export cycle fluctuations were classical fluctuations.Then the CMS model is introduced to conduct an empirical analysis of the factors affecting export fluctuations and the following conclusions are drawn.In the first-level decomposition results,in the short term,structural effects are the main influencing factors for the increase in export value,and the decrease in export value is mainly affected by the competitiveness effect and the cross effect.But in the long run,the effect of cross-effects on the reduction of export value is particularly obvious.In the second-level decomposition results,the effect of the growth effect is prominent and the fluctuations are large.The product structure effect fluctuates less than the growth effect but most of the time increases exports.The product competitiveness effect has led to a reduction in export volume for most of the time,and the degree of influence has continued to deepen.Fluctuations in the comprehensive competitiveness effect changed significantly and led to a reduction in export volume to the maximum value in 2016-2018.Dynamic cross-effects and net cross-effects suppress the increase in exports during most export cycles.The main reason for the decrease in the export of plant products in the fluctuation of the classified agricultural products export is the suppression effect of the cross effect.The main influencing factor of the export fluctuation of oil and fat products is the competitiveness effect.The positive effect of the structural effect in the export fluctuation of tobacco,food and beverage products gradually The main reason for the increase and the decrease in the export of animal products is the inhibitory effect of competitiveness and cross-effects.It shows that the quantitative growth model of Chinese agricultural products exports to Russia has not changed significantly.The main problem hindering exports is still lack of competitiveness,and the export structure does not adapt to changes in import market demand.Finally,this article puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions for the development of China's export of agricultural products to Russia:adjust the export structure in a timely manner in response to changes in the demand for agricultural products in Russia,further improve the quality standards of agricultural products and improve the quality of agricultural products for export,build the brand advantages of Chinese agricultural products to improve the export competitiveness of agricultural products,Relying on relevant trade policies to further promote the agricultural trade cooperation between the two countries,constantly improve the construction of agricultural trade infrastructure between the two countries,and promote the facilitation of agricultural trade.