| Along with reform development and market economy developing in depth, the tobacco industry in China gradually adjusts its development model, and shifts from the previous planned economy to a market economy, from a seller's to buyer's market, and actively promotes "organize the supplements according to customer orders" work across the country. However, "organize the supplements according to customer orders" work is based on cigarette demand forecast. Through cigarette demand forecast, tobacco enterprises can provide reliable market information to the organization for sourcing, production and structural adjustment. Based on this background, this paper aims to conduct in-depth study of cigarette demand forecast, and provide help and advice to the tobacco enterprises.This paper firstly summarizes and analyzes the demand forecast research of the domestic and foreign scholars, especially studies the quantitative models for demand forecast. Secondly, introduce the basic principles, concepts, elements of cigarette demand forecast, and design the main processes and evaluation system of cigarette demand forecast. Thirdly, according to different types of prediction contents, establish appropriate models of cigarette demand forecast. Finally, carry on the system design by using the SOA architecture thought, Microsoft Visual Studio 2008, C# for the development of language, Microsoft SQL Server 2005 as a background database, develops a cigarette demand forecasting Web Application System.In this paper, the research results are as follows:(1) design the main processes and evaluation system. (2) made qualitative and quantitative analysis of cigarette demand, and according to different types of prediction contents, establish appropriate models. (3) Developed the cigarette demand forecasting web application system, help the tobacco companies reduce the workload forecast, improve the prediction efficiency and customer satisfaction, and enhance its market competitiveness. |
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