The Study On Anshan Cigarette Market Demand Based On The Combination Of Forecast Model

In recent years, China's tobacco industry is carrying on the "Organizing the goods based on customer orders " work, which is to meet today's society idea " limit production to marketability", how to predict market demand for the tobacco market accurately to provide real and effective reference and decision-making basis, become a very important current research topic.Based on the above , we take a total of 10 years of the cigarette market sales data in Anshan City among 2001-2010 as the subject based on the combination of forecasts , using the research methods such as case studies,quantitative analysis and empirical analysis, summarized the Anshan City cigarette market economy conditions in detail,particularly the total cigarette market, cigarette sales, individual sales etc, and through empirical analysis method, using a variety of quantitative models of Anshan City, cigarettes market demand were predicted, by comparative analysis, finding the best way to market demand forecast, finally, four tobacco policy proposals were put forward in order to provide the reasonable forecasting process, scientific and rational demand forecasting methods, and efficient, simple prediction mechanism, for the supply organization, production scheduling and restructuring to provide reliable market information, on time delivery for commercial enterprises, industrial enterprises-time production to meet consumer demand and other core goals to provide the necessary conditions.This article designs five parts, including an introduction, three body parts and a conclusion.The introduction briefly explains the background and significance of the topics, makes the literature review, clear purpose and research methods of this paper, and at last briefly introduces the frame constructer and innovation.The first main part is the theoretical basis for the study, mainly sort out the theory, including trend extrapolation forecasting methods and multiple regression methods, and the basic theory of combination forecasts model for the subsequent empirical analysis of the theoretical basis of the groundwork .The second main part is the empirical research, including two chapters, the first chapter conducts a detailed analysis of the tobacco market conditions in Anshan City, , particularly in cigarette volume, sales and other data. Second, taking Anshan cigarette market as the study subject, using three quantitative models to forecast the market demand of cigarettesin Anshan, by comparative analysis, selceting the best way for the prediction.The third part is the countermeasures ,after the third part of the empirical analysis,we explore the best way to do tobacco forecast, while summed up the cigarette market forecasting suggestions for the tobacco companies of Anshan City.The last part is conclusion,based on the above, we do summary and draw conclusions of the full text, and present papers shortcomings.