The Policy Analysis Of Sustainable Urban Transport Under The Constrains Of Energy And Environment

In recent years, with the rapid development of economic, the improvement of people’s living standard and the increasing of commuting distance bring from the massive expansion made traffic demand increased. The demand for cars is rising, and the motorization level has reached the highest height ever. On the one hand, transportation system provides basic services to support social and economic activities, and brings great convenience to people’s mobility. On the other hand, it also has brought serious negative influence to the resources and environment, economy, social development and other aspects. Among which the most prominent and urgent problems are the resources and environment problems. The increasing of energy resources consumption in the transport sector will produce more negative impact of energy supply and environmental conditions in China in the future.In order to solve global environmental and energy issues, it is necessary to explore energy saving and environmental emissions cutting measures of department of transportation. In addition, it’s also necessary to discuss that the implementation of different transport policies to what extent can reduce energy consumption and pollution emissions from the transport sector. To understand the energy saving potential of each transport policy, a simple model of urban passenger transport was developed using computer based software called Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP), the model was used to carry out a research associated with urban passenger transport in Beijing to analyze the situation of energy consumption and environmental emissions of CO2, CO, CH4, N2 O, NOX, and SO2 for the base year 2012 and extrapolated till 2030 for the future predictions. The paper established four scenarios of business as usual, public transport, new energy vehicle, and P&N, and assessed the energy consumption and environmental emissions reduction potential of each scenarios in order to propose an optimal transport policy which have an excellent effect on reducing energy consumption and environmental emissions.Under the BAU, the energy consumption of urban passenger transport of Beijing will reach 10.51 Mtce, increase by 2.27 times compare to the base year. Scenario 4 is the most effective scenario to contain the increase in energy consumption, followed by scenario 2 and scenario 3, the three scenarios succeed to save 45.2%, 29.12% and 23.22% of energy consumption by 2030 respectively compare to BAU. At present, gasoline is the main type of energy consumed by urban transport system, it accounted for 83.3% of energy consumption in 2012. With the popularization of EVs and CNGVs in transport system, the types of energy consumption of the urban passenger transport tend to be more diverse. The emissions of CO2, CO, CH4, N2 O, NOX, and SO2 in 2012 are 915.54 million tons, 76.31 million tons, 0.22 million tons, 0.008 million tons, 7.12 million tons and 0.505 million tons respectively. The P&N scenario is the best scenario of all.