| Combining the ecological city construction in Wuhua district of Kunming city, This paper first introduces the development of the ecological city theory. Based on the Ecological Footprint Theory put forward by William R and the statistics of ecological development in Wuhua district of Kunming city during the recent years, this thesis makes a dynamic analysis on the changes of ecological footprint of Wuhua district during 2005-2009 in order to provide more detailed and scientific guide for the region's long-term sustainable development.It is pointed out that the ecological footprint per head in Wuhua district during 2005 to 2009 had increased. The ecological footprint per head of cultivated area and fossil fuel land take up 90% of total amount. The cultivated area and timber land, which play a very important role in the ecological system of Wuhua district, have been in deficit. Under the circumstances, in order to find out the best ecological footprint prediction model for Wuhua District, a comparison was made between the results of ecological footprint changes for the next five year got from Grey Model(GM) and that from Grey Neural Network Modeling(GNNM), which indicates that Grey Neural Network Modeling(GNNM) is superior to Grey Model(GM). Besides, it can be predicted that the ecological footprint of Wuhu district in the next five years will be 0.8175 hm2 per head. This situation can only be changed by consuming its own resource or enhancing the ecological system service.The analysis on the causes of ecological deficit highlighted some key issues related to the construction of ecological-city, including the population density, industrial structure, the planning of land use and the consumption of resources. Thus, in this thesis some measures and suggestions are put forward in hope of providing scientific grounds for government policies as well as a theoretical guide for constructing ecological city. |
PDF Full Text Request