Ecological Security Evaluation Of Deyang City Based On Energy Value Ecological Footprint Method

Deyang is located in the Cheng De Mian Area,where is the the most economically developed region of Sichuan Province,its industry undertakes a series of important industrial projects such as Dongdian,Erzhong and Dongqi,and its total industrial output value ranks secondly in Sichuan Province.However,from the perspective of ecological civilization,the urban ecological environment is under increasing pressure,the ecological problems have become increasingly prominent,and it has evolved an important link in the economic and social development of Deyang,because of the large-scale industrial development over the years,accompanied by the continuous agglomeration of population.Therefore,based on the energy-ecological footprint method,the current situation of ecological security in Deyang from 2006 to 2017 was calculated and analyzed,and it was evaluated further comprehensively,combined with GIS visualization analysis.The gray system model was applied to predict the ecological security status of Deyang in the next fifteen years.The main concluions are as follows.(1)Based on the energy-ecological footprint model,a long-term sequence study on the ecological carrying capacity,ecological footprint,emergy ecological deficit and the ecological footprint of 10000 yuan of GDP of Deyang from 2006 to 2017 was carried out.It showed that The change of carrying capacity was stable in the past 12 years,while the ecological footprint fluctuated greatly and generally showed a downward trend;the per capita ecological deficit also showed the characteristic of wavy decline;The ecological footprint of 10,000 yuan of GDP has also been significantly reduced,especially grassland,indicating that the resource utilization rate of Deyang City has improved.(2)Based on the ecological safety indicators,it was found that the ecological stress index of Deyang City was undulating,and the overall trend was declining;the ecological diversity index was growing steadily;the ecological coordination index was not obvious.Except for 2013,the ecological environment in the rest of Deyang City was in an ecologically unsafe state.(3)Combined with GIS visual analysis,it was concluded that the total ecological footprint of Deyang had a decreasing trend;the whole city was in an ecological deficit,and the change of ecological deficits of Luojiang and Guanghan are more severe,and it declined in Jingyang,Shifang and Mianzhu,and the change in Zhongjiang was relatively stable.The ecological stress index showed a downward trend in Xiangyang,Luojiang and Shifang.Among them,Xiangyang declined the most,and Guanghan,Mianzhu and Zhongjiang were in the first decline and then rising,while Guanghan was the most volatile.The ecological environment in most areas had been improved to some extent.By 2017,except for Guanghan and Mianzhu,the ecological safety levels of the rest had been converted to a safer level.(4)Based on the grey prediction model,DPS software was used to predict the ecological security status of Deyang in the next fifteen years,and it showed that the ecological security status of De yang will be changed gradually to a safer state in 2018-2032,and ecological pressure will be weakened.