The Development And Application Of The Power Transformer Fault Risk Assessment System

The transformer is important power transmission equipment; its operation is directly related to the security and reliability of power supply network, Therefore, the risk assessment of transformer fault has great significance. This paper presents a complete risk assessment method for transformer fault, and develops a risk assessment system of power transformer fault which will be applied to the actual power system. Main contents of the research is following:1. The risk-source indicators set of transformer fault was established based on the risk tree method. With electrical power system at 110kV and above voltage rank being investigating in 1990~1999,this paper take transformer accident and the failure statistics data of number of 328 as the foundation, analysis of all possible failure modes, and clearly point out that the cause of the main transformer fault types, fault effects, fault symptoms, fault detection and repair methods. On the basis of brief introduction to risk tree analysis (RTA) knowledge it established source of power transformer failure risk index. The establishment of the establishment index can scientifically and completely reflect a overall state of the transformer.2. Transformer failure of the risk is comprehensive assessment methods that based on higher risk matrix. The paper used the probabilistic method to classify possibility the failure possibility of the risk source transformer fault, and then combined with the extension of AHP and extension project risk evaluation method for transformer fault sources to assess the severity of the failure, That depend on various sources of risk of serious classifies the degree. On this ground, applying the higher risk matrix it is assessed comprehensively the probability of transformer failure and the severity of failure, and the strategies of transformer maintenance is drafted.3. The system about the risk assessment of power transformer failure is developed. Basing on Visual Basic 6.0 and Access the paper established a identification of transformer failure risk, a evaluation of failure probability, a assessment of failure severity, integrated risk assessment and software system of risk maintenance strategy. Transformer fault system can carry on professional management over the risk source, and realize the intelligent assessment of the failure. Furthermore, the system has a friendly interface and simple operation, and is applicable to actual production of power system.