Study On Forecasting And Warning Method Of The Sustainable Utilization Of Harbin Water Resources

Sustainable use of water resources is one of the basic as well as security conditions for the social and economic development, as become an inevitable choice for mankind. To ensure the coordinated development of water resources, the social and economic, management of regional water resources, scientific methods and study on forecasting and warning of the sustainable utilization become more and more essential.1) According to the research objectives,the author has determined the research area. A detailed analysis on the region's geographic location, terrain features, climate, meteorology, water resources development and utilization of profiles, socio-economic status, which laid a solid foundation for the next step.2) Initial theoretical framework on the forecasting and warning of the sustainable utilization of regional water resources in the regional construction. Through the forecasting and warning systems of the sustainable utilization of regional water resources theory, mechanism and a comprehensive analysis & deep studies on related concepts, determine the sustainability of water resources in line with the characteristics and features of forecasting and warning systems of the sustainable utilization of regional water resources.3) Based on the forecasting and warning systems construction principle, built the sustainable use of water resources warning indicator system initially, including warning source indicators and warning signs. With the usilization of time difference correlation analysis, classify warning signs in advance, synchronization and lag natures, completed preliminary screening of early-warning indicator system. In the analysis of complex system of water resources on the basis of the content, filtere into complex systems social - economic - water resourse in which social, economic and water resources are three subsystems.4) Proposed and identified the warning level of forecasting and warning of the sustainable utilization water resourse, that is, without warning, light-level warning, middle-level warning, significate warning, introducting feedback and combining with existing research results, identify the warning limit, test the effectiveness of warning,design an early warning signal system, monitoring the sustainable use of water resources in Harbin. predict warning indicator values with the use of support vector machine approach, including single and multiple trends warning indicators and get the results. In the model pre-warning, the introduction of comprehensive evaluation model based on utility function, propose empower AHP to determine the weight and composition. In predicted index value based on the utility function-based evaluation model for regional sustainable utilization of water resources in early warning, come to the regional water resources sustainable utilization of short-term pre-warning results.5) The results show that in 2010-2013 the study area in Harbin sustainable use of water resources is in the middle-level warning situation. Finally, analyze the pre-warning results of sustainable use of water resources, status quo of the corresponding countermeasures at home and abroad.