The Induced Passenger Flow Of Newly Built Passenger Dedicated Line

In recent years, with the rapidly development of China railway enterprise, a number of new passenger dedicated line has been built and integrate into the original transport corridor. It has become the backbone of long-distance transportation. After the new passenger dedicated line built, the original passenger transport structure will be changed, and it even can improve the traffic conditions of transport corridor area. It will have an impact on social passenger demand inevitably, which can induce more people to travel and generate a large number of induced passenger flow. This part of the passenger flow is truly integrated with the passenger dedicated line which promotes the traffic growth of the transport corridor. Therefore, it is necessary to study deeply.Firstly, this paper introduces the characteristics of passenger dedicated line from line design, vehicle, technology and economic, etc.. then analyses the formation,influence factors and different types of passenger flow,draw the conclusion of that the passenger flow of new passenger dedicated line is composed of the transfer passenger flow and the induced passenger flow. The induced passenger flow is not exist in original transport corridor but generated due to the integration of the passenger dedicated line. According to the relevant literature and data, the paper study on the formation mechanism, performance characteristics and variation rules of induced passenger flow of passenger dedicated line, further more, it is divided into near-term demand-release type and long-term economic-induced type.Through the reference literature analysis, it is considered that the MD model is suitable for the short-term demand release type of the passenger flow prediction. This paper make appropriate improvements on the original model in the following aspects: When calculating the time value, the time is regarded as a resource to be consumed; According to different travel purposes, divided it into whether official travel or not, then calculate it by different methods; When calculating the amount of the expense of travel, consider four factors such as travel time, travel cost, comfort and safety. Thus, summarized the forecast process and obtained MD-model of the short-term demand release type of the new passenger dedicated line. Finally, the paper uses the improved MD-model to predict the induced passenger flow of Zheng-Ji passenger dedicated line, and analyses the results to understand the characteristics of the induced passenger flow.