A Study To The Multi-objective Optimal Based Integrated Water Resources Management Model For Hai River Basin

Due to over emphasis on economic efficiency, many ecological and environmental problems appeared during the development of human society. These problems have caused lots of profound risk to the survival and development of the human. To alleviate these problems, sustainable development concept has been introduced into related management practices. Water resource, as a kind of irreplaceable natural resource, plays very important role for the human. Its sustainable utility has been attracting many attentions. Water resources honors the property of multi-attribute, which can benefit different areas, say resources, economic, ecologic, environment and society and so on. Then many water related problems attract people’s interest:how to make full use of the different attributes of water resource; how to make rational policies to direct the distribution of water resources; what will be resulted in from different water distribution scenarios. Realizing the above problems, at the same time with a full consideration of its resource attribute, economic attribute, ecologic attribute, environment attribute and society attribute, without omitting food security, water environment, social equity and other related problems, this study constructed an integrated water resource management model based on the principles for crop growth, ecological environment and microeconomic. Using the constructed integrated water resource management model, this study proposed a basic approach to evaluate the influence of water resources policies. Not only the sustainable development concept but also the social equity and policies influences were taken into account in the modelThere are a lot of people living in the Hai river basin, including many important cities, say Beijing-the capital of China. Therefore, the Hai river basin plays a very important role in the political and economical system of Chain. Water resources in this basin only account no more than 1.3% of total water amount of China. However, it stands for 10% population and 12.9% GDP of China. As the limit of water resources in Hai river Basin, sustainable using water resources in this basin is the important we must meet with. How to balance the water supply for economic development, ecological restoration, environmental water and water resources, water and social equity, and how to most effectively use water resources, how to protect the study area of food security and intergenerational community water on behalf of the equity, constitutes majors aspects worthy to be studied. This study kept the idea of the multi-attribute of water resources and examined the use of water resources under the condition of different scenarios in terms of a Water Resources Integrated Management of multi- attribute model specially constructed for Hai river basin. In order to consider the problem of uncertainty, this thesis used multiple scenario analysis to simulate various possible scenarios that may happen in the future. In different scenarios, we adopted the method to obtain the feasible solution for the multi-objective problem However, the due to the problem that the multi-attribute property of water resources cannot ride in the characteristics of each dimension, different feasible solutions cannot be directly compared. Therefore, this study introduced the OWA operator into feasible solution comparison. OWA can effectively solve the problem of multi-attribute degree is not the characteristics of the public, so the program can in certain circumstances between the direct comparison of advantages and disadvantages. Finally, we employed support vector machine (SVM) to conduct a risk assessment on the preferred options. Good results were obtained.